In the late evening of October 5, seismic tremors of a magnitude of 4.6 on the Richter Scale were detected in Iran’s Semnan region. Although they could be felt even in the capital Tehran, over a hundred kilometers away from the epicenter, as earthquakes go this was not a major event: It was not terribly strong and caused no casualties. And yet it has attracted global attention. The reason is that we are not sure that it really was an earthquake.

Since the tremors shook the Iranian desert, speculation that this was, in reality, an underground nuclear test has not been dying down, in some traditional media and in social media everywhere. In Iran itself, according to the Tehran Times – an outward-facing English-language publication – ”seismologists and […] authorities” have denied a nuclear test. The newspaper added that “CIA Director William Burns also said there is no evidence that Iran has decided to build a nuclear weapon.” Considering that, from long and bitter experience, Iranians do not generally consider the CIA a source of truth, that is an intriguing, maybe tongue-in-check addition.

It is not hard to imagine plausible reasons why the leadership in Tehran could have an interest in staging a test that it knows leaves detectable traces while at the same time it’s officially denying that it has done so: it would, in essence, serve to warn enemies while allowing for a degree of politically flexible deniability. It would also, perhaps, create some strategic ambiguity – that is, uncertainty among opponents – if not about the event itself, then about what exactly the Iranian leadership is intending to do with it.

Yet it is at least equally realistic to assume that there really was no test. Those discussions of the Semnan tremors that are publicly available seem inconclusive to the non-expert at least, turning on points such as the exact nature of the seismic wave and the location of the epicenter. For now, the only certain conclusion seems to be that we don’t know: It may have been just an ordinary earthquake, but a nuclear test cannot be ruled out at this point.

Let’s take a step back: Instead of assessing arguments for one or the other version of what exactly happened at Semnan in Iran on October 5, let’s ask two simple questions: Why is it so important and what would it mean if a nuclear test did really occur?

In some regards, it is obvious why the tremors have reverberated globally: Iran is already embroiled in a de facto war with Israel that is on the verge of escalating further, from increasingly destructive missile attacks into an even larger regional and possibly global war. Beyond the longstanding hostility between the two countries, this escalation is underway for two reasons: First, Israel has already completed a year of committing genocide against the Palestinians and there is no end in sight, while it has also been assaulting multiple........

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