As Iran and the Israeli-US coalition continue to exchange missile strikes and the Middle East crisis escalates, Tehran appears to have effectively neutralized the Gulf states’ capacity to respond. The Iranian strategy is executed with a precision that reflects decades of preparation. It is twofold: first, to overwhelm US military bases in the Gulf region (an effort that seems to be succeeding so far) and second, to pivot toward naval installations with the intent of enforcing a closure of the Strait of Hormuz. It is a grand strategic gambit designed to reorder global energy flows.

Should Iran succeed in shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, the consequences will reverberate far beyond the Gulf. China and Russia may find themselves with little choice but to enter the fray. Approximately 40% of China’s oil passes through that narrow waterway, and 20% of its supply originates from Iran itself. If Beijing allows the strait to be sealed, the consequences would be dire not only for China, but for Japan and India as well, whose economies would grind to a halt.

As such, we could anticipate China, Russia, Pakistan, and North Korea aligning in support of Iran, while India and Japan are likely to back the opposing coalition. It is also reasonable to expect Iranian-backed Houthi forces to move toward closing the Red Sea corridor, effectively cutting off oil shipments to Europe via the Suez Canal. The world would then be staring at a scenario where both the eastern and western arteries of global oil supply are constricted. In this case, will the Gulf of Guinea, long considered peripheral, move to the center of global geopolitics?

Nigeria, possessing one of the largest energy reserves in Africa, might become a country of........

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