Trump claims "talks" with Iran, sending futures soaring, but skepticism is warranted

Markets saw wild swings on Monday as asset prices fell, then rose, over a series of posts and counterclaims about the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran

Celal Gunes/Anadolu via Getty Images

In recent days, markets have painted a picture of textbook panic. Gold just posted its worst weekly drop since 1983, erasing all of its 2026 gains. Brent crude briefly topped $110 a barrel, up more than 50% since U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran began in late last month. Across the globe, bond values have fallen by over $2.5 trillion, with yields spiking in turn, suggesting that markets broadly expect a sharp increase in inflation.

The cause of the panic is not mysterious. Goldman Sachs $GS has called the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz the largest-ever “supply shock” to global crude markets. The IEA compared it........

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