Successful people may be more likely to rely on their record than current inputs when making decisions.

Confirmation bias and other dynamics can make us look for data that support the view we already have.

Being aware of our bias, and being deliberate about decisions, can push us to see counterarguments clearly.

Successful people who are early in their careers and successful people who are very experienced obviously have different perspectives on how they approach their professional choices. But where they are perhaps most alike is a shared vulnerability: They both can have a hard time separating a good record from good judgment.

When those things collide people can slide into confirmation bias. A good record means things have gone your way a lot of the time. Good judgment could be the reason. The problem is assuming it’s the only reason. After decades of working with leadership teams I can say it happens with very smart people, relatively often.

Successful people are often “smart,” which I use in the simple sense of able to synthesize information rapidly. If you can process faster, it doesn’t mean you process better. In fact, if you are processing quickly but not slowing down to consider your own biases, you can race past the very thing that would give you better judgment.........

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