Optimal decisions made in extreme conditions require effective fast and slow thinking.

Artificial intelligence (AI) may improve the speed and accuracy of decisions made in life-or-death situations.

There are also significant risks associated with AI used under such circumstances.

Decision-making in high-stakes, dangerous situations is challenging, to say the least. Time pressure, limited information, confusion, fatigue, and mortality salience combine to set the stage for decision-making errors, sometimes with grave consequences. An example is the downing of Iran Air Flight 655 by a missile launched by the USS Vincennes in 1988, resulting in the death of 290 passengers and crew. In a time of heightened tension between the U.S. and Iran, the captain of the Vincennes misidentified the airliner as an incoming hostile aircraft and ordered his crew to shoot it down.

Two Types of Thinking and Decision-Making

Decision-making under these conditions is based on two types of thinking elaborated on by Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman. Kahneman distinguishes between System I thinking (fast, automatic, and intuitive) and System II thinking (slower, conscious, and deliberate).[i] The Vincennes incident illustrates an error in Type I thinking. Without the luxury of time, the captain had to make a split-second decision based on rapidly evolving information. If the target detected was indeed a hostile aircraft, failure to act could result in damage or the sinking of his ship and the loss of many of his crew’s lives. Unfortunately, he made the wrong decision, which, in turn, caused the deaths of hundreds of innocent civilians.

System II thinking also influenced the captain’s decision. Thorough knowledge of the current political and military situation and of Navy doctrine on........

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