China’s Pacific missile test deserves scrutiny, but it should be understood in the context of decades of naval development and deterrence, not treated as proof of an imminent threat.

China conducted a successful test of an ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missile) in the Pacific on 6 July. The launch was made from a submarine in Chinese waters, and the missile travelled more than 7,000 kilometres before splashing down in international waters south of the Marshall Islands in the Pacific.

This caused considerable concern and was criticised by Japan, the US, Australia, New Zealand and other countries, who said that the one-day notice was insufficient. Some analysts said that the test was timed to coincide with Australia signing a mutual-defence treaty with Fiji. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese called the test a “provocative act … which does destabilise the region”.

A German proverb runs, “Fear makes the wolf bigger than it is (Angst macht den Wolf gr__ö__sser als er ist)”. Those most apt to embrace the “China threat” theory are most likely to regard the missile test as evidence of China’s ability to attack Australia and other countries.

A proper evaluation of the........

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