Australia may have escaped the worst of Donald Trump’s return to power so far. But beneath the surface, Washington’s shift towards spheres of influence is exposing serious weaknesses in Australia’s strategic posture.

As Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese seeks to maintain a careful balance between Washington and Beijing, Trump’s renewed emphasis on spheres of influence, coupled with his disregard for allied concerns, increasingly challenges the sustainability and effectiveness of Australia’s diplomatic straddle.

On the surface, Australia came through relatively unscathed from the Trump hurricane in 2025. It attracted a lower tariff than its Southeast Asian neighbours, received a presidential blessing on the AUKUS nuclear submarine deal and struck a critical minerals deal with Washington. But Australia’s ostensible reprieve masks deeper problems of its strategic exposure to an erratic and revisionist United States.

US President Donald Trump is unbound and on the loose, overturning long-held assumptions about the United States’ role in the world and acting in ways fundamentally at odds with international law.

This changed picture owes much to what French President Emmanuel Macron once referred to as the ‘beast of events’. Throughout 2025 the outlines of a new Australian diplomacy had begun to emerge. Following its return with a vastly improved parliamentary majority after national elections in May, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s government asserted itself with somewhat more confidence on the world stage. A new defence treaty was signed with Papua New Guinea and Canberra spoke more frankly to both the United States and China. It might be........

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