The world is likely to pass 1.5°C of warming around 2030, but rapid emissions cuts and carbon removal could still make the overshoot temporary and avoid far worse damage.

For over a decade, the world has been trying to limit global warming to 1.5°C.

That’s no longer possible, according to a new United Nations report. We will likely pass 1.5°C in 2030. That’s not good news for anyone, least of all Australia’s Pacific Island neighbours, who face rapidly rising seas.

In response to the report, Palau’s President Surangel Whipps Jr said:

“It is hard to overstate the depth of emotion for those of us living on the frontline after having fought so hard to put the 1.5 degree limit at the heart of the Paris Agreement […] calls for greater ambition are no longer enough – we need to see an urgent and unprecedented increase in political will and investment in a climate safe future.”

“It is hard to overstate the depth of emotion for those of us living on the frontline after having fought so hard to put the 1.5 degree limit at the heart of the Paris Agreement […] calls for greater ambition are no longer enough – we need to see an urgent and unprecedented increase in political will and investment in a climate safe future.”

The small silver lining is that it’s still possible for this to be a temporary overshoot of the target. If nations redouble their efforts to phase out fossil fuels and reduce other sources of emissions, they could limit peak warming to 1.8°C and then use carbon removal methods to bring temperatures back to 1.5°C or below this century.

In 2026, the world is already about 1.4°C warmer than........

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