Indonesia’s claims of rice self-sufficiency clash with import deals, opaque data and the growing political control of the food system.

Rice isn’t just a meal for half the world. In Indonesia it’s also an essential ingredient in national sovereignty – and big money deals. Mao Zedong was wrong about “all political power growing out of the barrel of a gun.” In Indonesia it grows in the paddy.

Are all Indonesians now dining on their own home-grown rice with not one imported grain, as the government says? If so, it’s a stunning achievement towards self-sufficiency directed by President Prabowo Subianto and a great boost to national pride.

It should also lead to lower prices.

The rice trade is controlled by the State-owned monopoly and public corporation, Bulog, Badan Urusan Logistik (Logistics Affairs Agency). It runs grain depots around the country and sets the floor price, currently Rp 6,500 (AUD 52 cents) a kilo.

Overall Indonesia produces about 55 million tonnes a year and is the world’s fourth largest grower.

Bulog is the principal source of data on crops, plantings and deliveries. It’s an agency with a record of alleged corruption, mainly concerning illegal sales.

This year it “absorbed” the equivalent of 840,000 tonnes of rice – representing a 2,000 per cent increase from the same period last year. This happened despite major flooding, particularly in Sumatra.

Even assuming yields have been boosted by better cultivation, new varieties and fertilisers, this figure is so........

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