The Farrer by-election could reveal whether Coalition voters are shifting towards One Nation or prefer independents, with implications for future political strategy.

The Farrer by-election offers the Liberal and National parties a unique opportunity to discover what their supporters truly think about how closely they should align themselves with Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party.

Labor’s decision not to contest the by-election means that the separate coalition parties could adopt an unusual strategy with their how-to-vote preferences, leaving it mainly to voters to determine whether or not to favour the One Nation candidate over an independent who is aligned with the Teals.

At the moment, the betting odds suggest that neither the Liberal candidate, Raissa Buttkowski, nor the National, Brad Robertson, will win. The leading contenders are independent Michelle Milthorpe and One Nation’s David Farley.

Milthorpe contested Farrer at the last federal election, and after preferences came second to Sussan Ley, who had........

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