The tri state war that is Iran, Israel and the USA is now in its fourth week and there are no signs of any letup or pause in the hostilities by both sides. Iran continues to bombard the Zionist nation and the American assets in the Gulf region. Israel and the US have retaliated by attacking vital Iranian infrastructure including energy centers, the murder of innocent school girls and the elimination of the top tier Iranian political and military leadership. In the fog of war we also see a flood of misinformation, disinformation loud claims and the spin doctors on both sides spinning their fantastic and utterly false stories.

The US coalition was quick to launch a devastating attack on the Iranian South Pars gas reserves and Iran was quick to reply with an equally brutal attack on the Qatari gas field said to be the largest gas field in the world which fulfills 80% of the gas demands of the Asian continent in conjunction with this attack Iran has also hit some other gas fields in the gulf region. Donald Trump issued a chilling warning to Iran if it attacked energy centers in the Gulf but in fact the attack on Iranian gas fields had been approved by Trump himself.

The Gulf region is bristling with American air bases along with over 50,000 ground troops stationed in various gulf countries when all the Gulf nations are opposed to this war and so far they have not retaliated against Iran in spite of the Iranian missile attacks, but in the recent conference they have warned Iran to desist from hostile actions against them or they will retaliate if Iranian attacks continue. If the Gulf nations enter this war Saudi Arabia will definitely invoke the Saudi-Pakistan defense pact putting Pakistan in a very difficult position politically and militarily. Today Narender Modi and Benjamin Netanyahu are very close friends and the Israeli ambassador to India had the nerve to call Pakistan a rogue state with nuclear weapons. In such a situation Pakistan will be up against the wall with very little space to maneuver. The entry of the Arab states in this war will be a dream come true for Israel and the Israeli leaders will be in full celebration as the entire region is engulfed in the flames of war. If the Gulf countries attack Iran it will be a great victory for Israel and they will be more than happy to continue their murderous actions in Ghaza and the West Bank.

It was only last year that Israel and Iran fought a 12 days duel with missiles and drones while political parleys were going on between the US and Iran. During this time Donald Trump boasted to have obliterated theIranian nuclear program by the use of his B-52 bombers that dropped Bunker busting bombs to destroy the Iranian nuclear facilities. Early this year talks between the USA and Iran were started again mediated by Oman and Britain in which Iran had agreed to a formal agreement with the USA but in spite of this Donald Trump went ahead and launched a brutal aerial assault on Iran to support the plans of his ally Israel.

This war began with the brutal assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei the supreme Iranian leader top military commanders and the Defense minister of Iran. Donald Trump jubilantly claimed complete victory announcing to the world that the Iranian military might has been totally destroyed, its air power has ceased to exist and its missile program has endedbut Iran continued to target American assets in the region and released a fresh barrage of missiles on Israel. Iran has very successfully blocked the Strait of Hormuz and prices of petroleum products are going up all over the world and if the war continues the economies of the third world countries will suffer tremendously specially the price of food products will rise because of the rising costs of transportation.

There are now reports that the US is now sending a Marines expeditionary force to the gulf region and indications are that the US forces will land on the Iranian Island of Kharg from where most of the Iranian oil is loaded onto tankers for export and if this happens it will be a very bloody ground battle with numerous casualties on both sides and there will be absolute mayhem in the oil market with prices going through the roof and stock markets collapsing all over the world.

This very unpopular war is now proving disastrous for the Trump regime specially with the coming elections in November, and if Trump loses his majority in the House of representatives he will have to face impeachment proceedings and perhaps this is the only factor that could force Donald Trump to look for an exit strategy and bring this war to an end. Donald Trump ends the fourth week of the Iran war trying to control a crisis that has now slipped out of his hands.

Prices of petroleum products going through the roof, the USA is now totally isolated with the European nations refusing the Trump request to join hands in the war and the USA now deploying more troops in the region with the possibility of ground battles.

A defensive Trump called other NATO countries “cowards” for refusing to help secure the Strait of Hormuz and insisted the campaign was unfolding according to plan. But his declaration that the battle “was militarily won” clashed with the reality of a defiant Iran that is choking off Gulf oil and gas supplies while launching missile strikes across the region.

—The writer is Professor of History, based in Islamabad.

© Pakistan Observer