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Ceasefire or catastrophe: Mediation in the Gulf

59 0
15.03.2026

THE Gulf today stands at a perilous juncture.

The United States, bound in strategic embrace with Israel, has wreaked havoc on Iran and now Lebanon after intensified pressure through sanctions, military build‑ups and renewed threats. Alarmed by rising fuel costs and the constraints of dipping into oil reserves, President Donald Trump has warned of “death, fire and fury” should Iran continue mining the Strait of Hormuz and blocking the flow of oil. Iran’s senior security official, Ali Larijani, responded defiantly via social media, dismissing Trump’s words as “empty threats.” The exchange underscores the dangerous brinkmanship at play, with international energy lifelines hanging in the balance.

While the world watches aghast, with the UN Security Council and OIC virtually paralyzed, Europe and others merely urge restraint and dialogue. Türkiye has stepped forward, offering to mediate between the protagonists, though its efforts have yet to gain traction. Meanwhile, UN Secretary General, António Guterres, has appealed directly to all sides to abandon confrontation and resort to dialogue, warning that escalation could destabilize not only the Gulf but the wider international order. In this bleak milieu, the need for credible mediation has never been greater. Peace in the Gulf is not altruism but survival: any disruption in Hormuz would send shockwaves through the global economy. Instability undermines growth, trade and the very foundations of international order.

One country with the potential to act as a neutral mediator is China. For........

© Pakistan Observer