SAUDI Arabia’s approval of a civil nuclear cooperation framework with the United States under the “123 Agreement” marks a defining moment in Middle Eastern geopolitics.

Officially, Riyadh’s motivations align with its Vision 2030 framework: diversifying its economy, preserving oil reserves for export and exploiting domestic uranium deposits. Yet, beneath the veneer of energy transition lies a complex web of regional rivalries and structural constraints. These underlying dynamics explain why despite historical grievances and a shifting global order Saudi Arabia remains firmly anchored to the West. Observers often wonder why Saudi Arabia continues to look toward Washington despite past American foreign policy inconsistencies. Over the past two decades, Washington’s abrupt policy shifts ranging from the abandonment of regional allies during the 2011 Arab Spring to its hesitation to respond forcefully to the 2019 Aramco drone strikes have deeply unnerved Gulf monarchies.

However, through the lens of Structural Realism (Neorealism), Riyadh’s persistence is driven by a strategic calculus of survival rather than blind trust. In an anarchic international system, states act to balance existential threats. For Saudi Arabia, the primary threat is regional encirclement by an assertive, non-state-actor........

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