Afghanistan has been a hotbed for transnational terrorist organisations for over two decades. These groups have gradually expanded their operations beyond Afghanistan, causing instability across the South and Central Asian region, especially after the US withdrawal. This insight argues that transnational terrorist organisations have become more active and influential since the US forces’ withdrawal in 2021, destabilising Pakistan and the whole region.

The 35thUnited Nations report indicates that Afghanistan is hosting more than 20 terrorist groups, including Al-Qaeda, TTP, and IS-KP, posing serious regional and global security threats. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia has estimated that between 20,000 and 23,000 foreign terrorists are present in Afghanistan. These reports raise critical questions about whether the Afghan government supports these groups, has the capacity to control them, or deliberately avoids confronting their regional activities.

The following graph shows the country-level distribution of major attacks (2021–2025) by Afghanistan-based terrorist organisations, highlighting Pakistan as the most targeted country, mainly due to TTP and Baloch group attacks in KP and Balochistan.

Several factors contributed to the rise of terrorism in the region since the US withdrawal, particularly the diversion of weapons and humanitarian aid into terrorist hands. The December 2025 SIGAR report noted that poor oversight during the US forces’ withdrawal led to large amounts of military equipment, valued at about $7.1 billion, ending up with the Taliban, thereby boosting their capacity.

The same report shows that the US provided approximately $3.7 billion in humanitarian aid after the withdrawal, channelled through UN agencies and NGOs operating in Afghanistan. A portion of this aid may have ended up in terrorist hands, suggesting that these groups rely on foreign funding, with allegations of external backing for IS-KP.

The 35thUN report indicates that the Afghan government is collaborating with terrorist organisations in Afghanistan; however, a deeper analysis shows that terrorism in the region, especially against Pakistan, persisted even during the previous Afghan governments. In fact, Pakistan witnessed the height of terrorism during 2008-2014, as shown in the following graph, when US-led NATO forces were operating inside Afghanistan.

The Afghan regime’s lack of international recognition, poorly trained forces, and weak intelligence suggest that terrorists have become more active since the US withdrawal. The Afghan regime, despite insistence from Pakistan, has shown no willingness to control the Taliban terrorist activities originating from its soil. Pakistan has consistently offered support to improve the counter-terrorism capacity of the Afghan Taliban regime, to which they have not responded positively so far.

The Afghan Taliban has factions with differing views on governance, foreign relations, and extremist groups. The split between the Kandahari faction, linked to BLA and the Haqqani Network, which connects to TTP, reveals deep divisions.

These factions maintain ties with terror groups to secure potential support against rival factions when required. Pakistan’s security reports indicate that the BLA and TTP receive financial and logistical support through India-linked networks, as evident by the arrest of Kulbhushan Jadhav in 2016 in Balochistan. Since January 2024, Pakistan has reported 5,436 terrorist incidents. In Mar 26, Pakistan has also destroyed Israeli made drones at Bagram Air Base. Similarly, covert support from Western-backed intelligence agencies to terror proxies cannot be ruled out.

These patterns may be understood in the broader context of geopolitical rivalries, where regional stability aligns with China’s strategic interests, while sustained instability may advance US-led Western objectives by constraining China’s influence and reshaping the regional balance of power.

Currently, Pakistan has decided to undertake kinetic actions against terrorist organisations operating from Afghanistan, which would yield positive results in the short term. However, in the medium to long term, mutual cooperation and coordinated regional engagement are essential to achieve sustained stability. There is a need to review the internal Counter-terrorism Strategy. However, the complexity of the external dimension requires a coordinated regional approach.

Several regional frameworks already exist, including the Moscow Format, the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) under SCO, and China-led initiatives. Since Pakistan, Iran, and Afghanistan are the key countries confronting terrorism in the region, there is an urgent need to establish an intelligence-sharing framework among these nations.

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