For much of modern history, the Arctic was imagined as a distant white barrier: difficult to reach, hostile to commerce and largely beyond ordinary political life. During the Cold War, it had a different significance. It was a theatre of nuclear deterrence, long-range surveillance, submarine operations and air routes. Yet its physical severity limited what states could do there.

That condition is changing. The Arctic is warming rapidly, sea ice is thinning and seasonal access is expanding. NOAA reported that the March 2025 Arctic sea-ice maximum was the lowest in the 47-year satellite record. At the end of summer, ice cover was 28 per cent less extensive than in 2005, and the ice that remained was younger and thinner.

This does not mean the Arctic has become easy, safe or open for business. It remains one of the world’s most dangerous operating environments. But changing ice conditions are increasing pressure for shipping, surveillance, extraction, telecommunications, ports, search and rescue, and military presence. The geography is changing faster than the rules and relationships required to manage it. That is why the Arctic deserves attention not only as a climate story, but as a climate-security question. The risk is not that war is inevitable. It is that climate disruption, strategic competition, infrastructure investment and weak governance can reinforce one another until........

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