In astrophysics, the “three-body problem” describes the difficulty of predicting how three objects will move when each is affected by the gravity of the other two. Outer space now faces a comparable geopolitical problem. The actions of the United States, Russia and China are reshaping the security environment in outer space, with each country’s response affecting the calculations of the other two in what is known as a “security dilemma”.

The paradox is that just as the exploitation of outer space for global well-being is taking off, security in this fragile environment is deteriorating in ways that put the entire enterprise, and the many states now dependent on satellites for a wide array of services, at risk. Russia and China may often take similar positions in UN discussions, but they are not one ‘body’ in this problem. Along with the United States, they are the three leading space powers whose rivalry threatens to make space less secure for everyone.

A New UN Process Is Underway 

The current focus is the Open-Ended Working Group on PAROS, established in 2025 and mandated to report to the General Assembly in 2028, if it can reach consensus on an outcome document. Its first two sessions, held in April and November 2025 under the chairmanship of Argentina’s Ambassador Foradori, began with procedural disputes but ultimately produced constructive exchanges. 

The third session, held in Geneva from July 6 to 10, 2026, has just concluded, and as a reminder of how rapidly the context of these discussions is changing, the German ambassador pointed out that the number of active satellites had increased by some 20% since the group had last met in November. Currently there are approximately 16,000 active satellites, and projections suggest that 100,000 could be in orbit by the early 2030s.

Although the atmosphere at the third session was largely positive, participation by civil society and private-sector stakeholders remains problematic. Requests for accreditation have been in decline, and for this session two requests (from the International Institute of Strategic Studies and One Web Corporation) were rejected. Any state can veto accreditation for an NGO anonymously and without giving a reason. Several Western states suspected Russia was responsible and protested the exclusion, but to no avail.

The Outer Space Treaty and Its Limits

Concerns over the governance of outer space and its security implications have existed since the dawn of the space age. In 1967, the United Nations negotiated the Outer Space Treaty, a foundational agreement that established outer space as a realm beyond national appropriation: a global commons, or “the province of all mankind” in the language of the day.

The treaty established that outer space is not subject to national appropriation and should be explored and used for the benefit of all countries. It prohibits the placement of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction in orbit or elsewhere in outer space. It also requires that the Moon and other celestial bodies be used exclusively for peaceful purposes, while obliging states to act with due regard for the interests of others.

The treaty lacks a regular forum where its 118 states parties can discuss implementation or raise concerns. For all its foundational importance, the treaty has never been sufficient on its own to prevent an arms race in outer space. This issue, known in UN language as the “prevention of an arms race in outer space”, or PAROS, has remained........

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