Canadians have lived through a series of unusual events over the past five years that have strained the country’s social fabric. The first of these was the pandemic, which brought our normal routines at home and at work to a crashing halt. This was followed by a sharp rise in the cost-of-living that erased any hopes of a post-COVID economic recovery. Then came the threats to our economy, security and sovereignty unleashed by Donald Trump at the start of his second mandate as U.S. President. These events have occurred against the backdrop of a worsening international situation, including the continued Russo-Ukraine War in Europe and the Middle East. What we all wouldn’t give to revisit the concept of a slow news day.

It seems unlikely that these experiences could unfold without affecting how we see one another, the country and the world. Our social values speak to what we think is important in life – what we aim to achieve or to avoid. While these values are more enduring than opinions about the day’s latest events, they can and do evolve. And our ongoing research on social values in Canada is indeed picking up some important changes.

A Turn Toward Security

The most notable of these is a rise over the past five years, across the entire Canadian population, in values connected with raw survival and security. This entails a shift away from what we call fulfillment values – those that emphasize relatedness, mutual understanding, and harmony – in favour of greater acceptance or admiration of hard power and dominance. It also includes movement towards values associated with sexism and patriarchy, and towards ecological fatalism – the belief that inflicting damage on the environment is an acceptable result of advancing human economic priorities. And there is more attraction to a the so-called “authoritarian impulse” – the tendency to agree that tough times call for tough leaders unafraid of colouring outside the lines.

None of this is to suggest that a majority of Canadians are embracing sexism or authoritarianism. It is rather that the momentum has shifted in those directions. These orientations are not the dominant ones, but they are less marginal than before.

Are Canadians Becoming More American?

The question that this movement provokes is whether it means that Canadians are becoming, in a word, more American. This is a possibility I am particularly attentive to, having hung my hat on the claim more than 20 years ago that the opposite was happening. In Fire and Ice, a book first published in 2003, I argued that contrary to some widely held assumptions at the time (particularly in the wake of free trade), the Canadian and American personalities were in fact diverging. Our social values research was showing that, while Americans were maintaining strong attachments to values like patriarchy and religiosity, Canadians were on another path – questioning traditional forms of authority and becoming more oriented to secular individualism.

Despite the recent changes I have outlined, I don’t think it’s time to rethink that thesis. One reason is the strength of our rejection of the proposition that we should cease to be Canadian at all. Nine in 10 Canadians say they don’t want to accept the invitation to become the 51st state. Canadians today are actually more hostile to the prospect of annexation by the United States, and more confident that we will remain independent, than we were during and immediately following the free trade debates of the 1980s.

A Growing Distance from the United States

There is also little support here for Trump himself. Only 12 percent of Canadians approve of how he is handling his job and U.S. president – and this, before he launched the war on Iran. Looking beyond the president himself, Canadians are taking a dimmer view of America. In 2025, more Canadians than ever before (66%) said they had an unfavourable opinion of the United States – a complete reversal of our traditionally favourable view. Three in four of us now believe that the government of the United States is untrustworthy.

A growing number of Canadians are specifically concerned about the threat America poses to our country. The proportion of Canadians that sees the U.S. as our friend fell to 36 percent following the return of Donald Trump to the White House for his second term – it had previously stood at 89 percent. Canadians are now about as likely to consider the U.S. as a friend of Canada as they are India. And they are now about as likely to consider the U.S. as an enemy of Canada as they are China. Even more starkly, 43 percent believe a US military attack on Canada – an unthinkable prospect for well over a century – is at least somewhat likely. Ten per cent believe such an attack is “highly likely” or “certain.”

One further study by the Environics Research Group highlights the depth of Canadians’ commitment to protecting their sovereignty. It asked Canadians what action they would take, if any, “to defend Canada against a military attack and invasion or occupation by a hostile foreign power.” Most of us (72%) said we would take at least some action. Choosing from a list of options, about a quarter said they would be willing to join a civil defence force, 13 percent said they would volunteer for military service, and 15% said they would “engage in armed resistance.” Remarkably, 16 percent of Canadians said they were “absolutely” willing to die defending Canada while an additional 22 percent were willing to die “depending on the circumstances.” For a society that tends to be more comfortable celebrating its peacekeeping history and capacity for multilateral collaboration, the public’s self-reported willingness to engage in armed conflict (or at least gritty resistance) is striking.

Changing Attitudes on Immigration

There are other signals that the pressures experienced over the past several years have not dulled all the edges of the distinctive Canadian personality. Take the case of opinions about immigration. Our surveys have mapped a reversal of the decades-long pattern of majorities of Canadians expressing mainly positive views about immigration. Since 2022, Canadians have begun to indicate that immigration inflows are too high. But when asked about the reasons for their concern, we are more likely to cite government mismanagement than dislike of outsiders. Even when pointing to rising housing prices, immigrants themselves are not really the target; the public generally blames the government for not ensuring that the supply of affordable housing matched the growth in the population.

Meanwhile, seven in ten Canadians continue to say that immigrants have a positive impact on the economy. Only 15 per cent believe immigrants negatively impact their local community. And 81 per cent of Canadians say that someone born outside of Canada is just as likely to be a good citizen as someone born here. And even as concern with immigration levels has spiked, our social values research finds that the embrace of cultural diversity within Canada, along with a sense of interest in and kinship with people around the world, have grown.

In this context, it is worth mentioning the recent international survey from the Pew Research Center, in which they asked people to rate the morality and ethics of others in their country. Of the 25 countries surveyed, Canada topped the list as the country where people are most likely to say their fellow citizens are basically good people – moral and ethical. Americans in stark contrast are the most likely to believe the opposite – that their fellow citizens are morally bad.

A More Uncertain Generation

Despite these grounds for reassurance, the situation facing the younger generations in Canada remains a cause for concern. Over the last five years, Canadians in general (not just the young) have grown less secure in their present financial circumstances and less optimistic about their future. And the causes are not only financial. Canadians are expressing more fear about the changes wrought by technology, and are more likely to say they don’t feel much power to change the course of their lives.

Again, these trends are evident across society – not only among young people. But since young people are laying foundations for their future, a general sense of insecurity and pessimism might hit them especially hard – and might give them an even stronger feeling that the status quo needs to change.

Of course, it is nothing new for youth to seek change. Since we began measuring social values in Canada, younger generations have been more likely to question authority and to try to break down hierarchies they saw as unjust – between men and women, among racial and religious groups, even between humans and the ecosystems that sustain them. What’s new is that today, by contrast, many youth are expressing strong attraction to authority, rules, traditions, and norms that predate the social environment in which they were raised. Some young Canadians even feel drawn to some of the social hierarchies that their parents and grandparents strove to escape.

On one hand, these trends in youth values mark a reversal of the late-20th century dynamics whereby young people broadly drove progressive change in opposition to the relative conservatism of older generations. On the other hand, the current moment resembles past waves of intergenerational change in the sense that young people are bristling against the rules and certainties of their parents and grandparents – rules and certainties that no longer seem to fit the world young people see before them, or the lives they want for themselves.

These broad values changes we see among youth are driven by concerns about affordability, housing and employment – in and of themselves, they do not necessarily represent a Canadian branch of MAGA on the march. Yet Canada is still at a critical juncture. Can this country address the needs of youth at the same time as we retool our economy to be less dependent on the United States? Can we rethink our international relationships and dramatically increase defence spending at the same time as we continue to manage long-standing domestic challenges such as regional alienation? Can we rebuild trust in a well-managed system of immigration that benefits Canada while supporting the economic and social integration of immigrants and lowering the boom on exploitation and abuse? Can we make diversity, equity, and inclusion work for all Canadians, reinforcing the idea that opportunity is not zero-sum and that we all benefit when everyone can achieve their full potential? And as we strive to do all that, can we also find a way to live next door to an increasingly hostile country with far more people, wealth, and power – and still be Canada?

I for one think we will continue to make progress on these challenges – together. And in doing so, we will still manage to remain in Canada.

© OpenCanada