With five wins in their past six games, the Edmonton Oilers are beginning to look much more like the team that reached the Stanley Cup Final in back‑to‑back seasons, and they have accomplished much of it in Leon Draisaitl’s absence.

Still, with the playoffs only a few weeks away, several questions remain. Chief among them is how Edmonton’s coaching staff should structure the forward group once the roster is fully healthy. 

Draisaitl’s return will obviously reshape the top-six, and the recent surge from the team’s depth forwards has created genuine competition for playing time. As a result, the coaching staff suddenly has some difficult decisions to make about who should play and who shouldn’t.

Let’s take a closer look at the data and determine which line combinations would be most optimal.

*All stats via Natural Stat Trick

The first line

Though there are many possible lineup combinations one could reasonably argue for with this roster, there is one pairing that I believe should remain untouched: the duo of Connor McDavid and Matt Savoie. 

Since the beginning of the new year, McDavid and Savoie have been operating at a fantastic 64 percent goal share and 59 percent expected goal share. Overall, Savoie has been outstanding since the Olympic break, producing 14 points in 18 games over that span. With his speed, skill, and intelligence, he has been an excellent fit alongside Edmonton’s captain, and I believe it would be a terrible mistake to split those two up and disrupt the chemistry they have built.

The real question, then, is who should flank McDavid’s other wing.

With Edmonton’s recent success since Draisaitl’s injury, some have suggested that it may be a more viable option to load up the first line with McDavid and Draisaitl now. I certainly understand the appeal, as with the way that Savoie is currently playing, a top line of Draisaitl – McDavid – Savoie would be a force to reckon with in the offensive zone.

However, loading up McDavid and Draisaitl is incredibly contingent on the success of the second line without Draisaitl, and I am extremely wary about those chances in the playoffs.

At first glance, it may seem that the Hyman – RNH – Roslovic line appears to be thriving. In the minutes they have played, they boast an 80 percent goal share (4-1). However, that success is heavily inflated by an unsustainably high 13 percent on-ice shooting percentage and 0.962 on-ice save percentage that simply will not hold over a larger sample. Overall, they possess a brutal 40 percent expected goal differential, with high-danger chances at 14 to 8 in favour of the opposition when this line is on-ice.

The broader issue is........

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