The threat of a strong El Niño still looming, rainfall in this year’s monsoon season varied by the month. June was one of the driest in India’s history, closing at a 35% deficit whereas July was 1% above normal. This ‘normal’ rainfall in July was largely driven by Central India whereas East and South India had a large deficit. As of August 26, the all India seasonal rainfall stands at a 13% deficit, in keeping with the weather agency’s forecast of a below-normal monsoon. The deficit is still most pronounced in East and South India.

There have also been floods or flood-like situations in Assam, Himachal Pradesh, and parts of the National Capital Region, Uttar Pradesh etc. What does this mean for India’s primary cropping season, that is, Kharif? What does this mean for farmers, foodgrain production, food prices and ultimately, for consumers?

Reviewing preparedness for this Kharif crop season earlier in June, Union agriculture minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan had said, “There is no need to panic. What is required is preparedness and collective action.”

The Union government had urged states to promote short-duration crop varieties and those capable of delivering higher yields with lower water requirements. It further encouraged farmers to adopt crop diversification. “Intercropping and mixed farming practices are also being promoted to ensure that if one crop is affected, farmers can still generate income from others,” the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare said, and listed a number of measures it is taking including water conservation and harvesting works under Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) and Viksit Bharat- Guarantee for Rozgar and Ajeevika Mission Gramin (VB-GRAMG).

So far, India’s sown area under pulses has increased as compared to this time last year but the area under rice declined by 1.3 million hectares, or 3% lower than 2025-26. Even the area sown under coarse cereals (ragi and maize) has seen an overall dip, oilseeds (soybean and castor) has seen a decrease, and so has sugarcane and cotton. Overall, India’s sown area as yet is 1.6 million hectares less compared to this time last year. 

Sugar prices have surged within one month, going from Rs 48 on July 20 to Rs 55 on August 20. As a precautionary measure, the government permitted duty-free import of raw sugar “to further augment domestic availability”.

On this backdrop, ISignal spoke with Siraj Hussain, former Union agriculture secretary, on what a weak monsoon could mean for India and his assessment of the situation of the ongoing Kharif crop season. 

Hussain had earlier served as secretary for food processing and industry, and was chairman and managing director of Food Corporation of India (FCI). At present, he is advisor (food processing), FICCI and a trustee of World Food Programme Trust for India.

India as a whole has had a wide variation this monsoon so far. East and Northeast India has a 26% rainfall deficit, South has 22% deficit and Northwest has 10% deficit rainfall so far. All of these regions are important from an agricultural point-of-view. A prolonged dry spell or uneven rainfall distribution in August could affect Kharif yields. What is your assessment so far?

All India rainfall figure does not reveal much. This year, Bihar has been in........

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