Donald Trump’s tariff regime is on the verge of a dramatic collapse. His aggressive use of tariffs against countries around the world has now hit a critical point as the very legal basis for those tariffs may not hold up in court. And if it falls apart, the consequences could be severe.

President Donald Trump is caught in a legal battle at the US Supreme Court over the validity of his tariffs, after a federal court struck most of them down. His administration is panicking over possible refunds of hundreds of billions which would be a logistical and economic disaster.

As per an estimate, an amount larger than $200 billion collected in tariffs would have to be refunded. Others put this number at $72 billion. Either way, this is a massive disaster-in-waiting.

A federal appeals court has just dealt a serious — possibly fatal — blow to the legal foundation of Donald Trump’s global tariff regime. In a 7–4 decision, the Federal Court of Appeals ruled that the administration overstepped its authority when it used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to levy sweeping import duties. The court’s opinion is blunt: “IEEPA does not authorise the imposition of tariffs," and the White House’s catch-all tariff programs “exceeded the scope of statutory authority." It emphasised that the Constitution assigns tariff-setting power solely to Congress. For now, the court has stayed its own mandate and the tariffs remain in place. But the legal ground beneath them has cracked.

The face behind the setback is lawyer Neal Katyal. He’s a........

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