Pakistan’s generals thought they were back in business in Washington. They misread the moment.

For much of 2025, Islamabad sold a story at home that it had outplayed India in Donald Trump’s tariff game. Pakistan locked in a 19 per cent US tariff on its exports at a time when Indian goods were being hit with a 50 per cent duty, including a punitive surcharge tied to Russian oil purchases. Commentators in Pakistan hailed this as proof that Asim Munir’s outreach to the White House had delivered where New Delhi had stumbled.

The mood shifted this month. The new India–US deal cut Indian tariffs to 18 per cent, scrapped the oil related penalty, and promised zero duty entry for a long list of high value exports. Pakistan stayed at 19 per cent. On paper, the gap narrowed from 31 points to just one. In practice, that one point matters in the price sensitive sectors where India and Pakistan compete: textiles, leather, engineering goods, carpets, homeware. It is also deeply symbolic. Washington chose to give India better terms than every major South Asian peer, Pakistan included.

That outcome came after months in which Rawalpindi invested heavily in Trump personally. General Asim Munir’s lunch at the White House was billed in Pakistan as a historic breakthrough. It was the first time in years that a Pakistani army chief, not a head of government, had secured a one on one with an American president. Munir publicly praised Trump’s role in halting the India–Pakistan conflict, and even backed calls to nominate him for the Nobel Peace Prize. The optics were clear: Pakistan’s military leadership was betting that flattery and access would translate into strategic and economic gains.

Instead, the big prize went to India. The February 2026 interim trade framework cut US tariffs on Indian goods from 50 per cent to 18 per cent, removed the extra 25 per cent penalty on Russian oil purchases, and opened zero duty channels for gems, smartphones, pharma and select farm products. India moved from worst treated to best placed........

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