The comparison is increasingly unavoidable, yet stubbornly ignored: India is on a trajectory to become the next Israel. Why do I say so? Here are some questions that help answer this question.

First, is India being strategically encircled by its adversaries? Yes.

Consider China’s efforts to build a trilateral axis with Pakistan and Bangladesh, which could in the long-run very well be turned into a security alliance aimed at challenging India’s primacy in the subcontinent. Earlier, China had set up a similar mechanism with Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Second, is India relentlessly provoked and compelled into a state of perpetual, high-tech and multi-domain readiness? Yes.

Consider how Pakistan continues its proxy war against India using expendable and easily replaceable terrorists. Operation Sindoor was a bold campaign to punish Pakistan, but will it ensure Pakistan permanently abjures sponsoring terrorists? No. Therefore, the next flare-up with Pakistan is inevitable.

Third, is India incrementally redefining the rules of engagement? Yes.

Whether it was the surgical strikes, the Balakot airstrike or more recently, Operation Sindoor, India is gradually moving from strategic restraint to calculated offence. Much like Israel, it is increasingly willing to strike first, signal strength and absorb diplomatic consequences in the service of deterrence.

But let us not get ahead of ourselves. While India is showing signs of adopting an Israeli-style posture which is assertive, preemptive and uncompromising on national security, it is still early days. Israel’s strategic doctrine is backed by decades of seamless coordination between intelligence, military and political leadership, as well as a deep technological edge and a globally recognised........

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