Verdict Bangladesh: Dhaka’s New Pivot, Delhi’s New Dilemma

Henceforth, an 'India-baiting' BNP will rule, and an allegedly Hindu 'genocide' normalising Jamaat-e-Islami will sit in Opposition

It’s easy to fall back on sweeping generalisations to describe the outcome of the national election result in Bangladesh. “A New Dawn" has been used, and so has the phrase “A New Page". But nothing on the ground has happened to suggest that we’re witnessing anything even remotely pathbreaking. The election and its buildup itself followed a tired script: the ban on political parties, ballot fixing, violence, and the same parlous flirtations with filthy lucre. The outcome too was on expected lines. Well, almost.

While the victory of the Centre-Right Bangladesh Nationalist Party, led by Tarique Rahman, was guaranteed because of the ban on the Awami League, led by Sheikh Hasina, the emergence from the fringes of Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami marks a stunning turnaround for religious politics in the nation.

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Henceforth, an “India-baiting" BNP will rule, and an allegedly Hindu “genocide" normalising Jamaat-e-Islami will sit in Opposition.

The Indian government was quick to proffer congratulations in heaps. The Prime Minister, the External Affairs Minister, and several other notables posted their support for the BNP. Realpolitik demanded it; geography compels engagement regardless of ideology.

For India, the “elected" alternative is potentially trickier. Here’s why.

First, the BNP is going to be even more militant with Delhi about providing refuge to arch-rival, Awami League ex-PM Sheikh Hasina. In fact, as if on cue, setting the tone on day one itself, the BNP demanded the extradition of Hasina, almost suggesting that it was prepared to risk ties for India’s “cooperation" on the matter.

Second, the BNP has denounced the “heroic legacy" of Bangladesh’s founder, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, who spearheaded the country’s liberation struggle and helped it to emerge as an independent nation in 1971 from Pakistan. The BNP’s win paves the way for better relations with Islamabad and potentially the formation of an axis of influence that could include China, which already has entrenched stakes in Bangladesh.

Third, the current leader of the BNP, who has won a majority, is accused of running a weapons-smuggling network supplying guns to the ULFA separatist group in Assam in the past. With that background, Tarique Rahman, unlike his late mother Khaleda Zia, may be less inclined to prioritise India’s core interests and security concerns in the North-East. Delhi’s work is cut out.

Finally, Jamaat-e-Islami has emerged as the principal opposition, marking a dangerous flirtation with once-shunned Islamism in Bangladesh. A look at the electoral map shows that the Jamaat is on India’s doorstep. Several areas of Bangladesh bordering India have been won by the Jamaat.

The concern isn’t immediate violence but Islamist mobilisation and radicalisation in areas contiguous with India. The emergence of the religious option says a lot about growing religious parochialism in Bangladeshi society. Could Bangladesh become a staging ground for Islamist radicals primed by Pakistan’s ISI? Time will tell, but clearly, for the reasons above, Delhi can expect to encounter turbulence from Dhaka.

© News18