Opinion | This Is Not India’s War To Mediate

While there is a compelling case to be made for India inserting itself in a manner commensurate with its regional stature, this isn’t that conflict. Nor is it the moment.

The Opposition has sharpened its attack on the Modi-led NDA, accusing it of ceding diplomatic space to Pakistan as the latter positions itself as a mediator in the Gulf war. The Opposition argues that India, once seen as a key regional voice, is now reduced to the “sidelines" due to what it calls “strategic silence" and growing “diplomatic invisibility." The criticism is clearly designed to pressure New Delhi into adopting a more visibly assertive role as the Opposition feels restraint symbolises weakness.

While there is a compelling case to be made for India inserting itself in a manner commensurate with its regional stature, this isn’t that conflict. Nor is it the moment. Here’s why.

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First, no country can be an effective mediator without real influence. Mediation works when both sides believe the mediator can shift outcomes. As things stand, India doesn’t have real leverage over the protagonists. India imports over 60 per cent of its crude from the Gulf; it has no military footprint or security role in the conflict. Its strength is economic and diplomatic, not coercive. That means India cannot be a decisive arbiter.

Second, India’s proximity to risk is another major disincentive. India has over 8-9 million citizens living and working in the Gulf, and the region accounts for a major share of its energy imports and remittance inflows. At last count, the remittances bring in $40 billion annually.

Taking a full-on mediatory role could complicate evacuation plans and expose assets at a time when safeguarding people and supplies is paramount. Pakistan is just getting a taste of how its decision to mediate could backfire. For instance, the IRGC navy halted a Pakistan-bound energy tanker in the Strait of Hormuz as Tehran wants to ensure it has leverage over Islamabad to keep it honest when mediation begins.

Third, timing is everything in diplomacy. Wars only end when costs begin to outweigh gains on both sides. Right now, both sides are still signalling strength. Neither of them believes they are losing and, therefore, is not willing to listen to each other in a meaningful way, which is the first step to compromise.

America’s 10-point peace proposal is an example of the US being tone deaf to Iran’s concerns and priorities. In its present state, the US’s 10-point peace proposal is not a white flag but a red rag. That timing matters was exemplified by the fact that even Trump couldn’t bring Putin or Zelenskyy to agree to a cessation of hostilities, as both nations were not ready to concede ground, as they felt they could still win the war.

None of this precludes a role for India. But the more effective play may lie in facilitation, and that too behind-the-scenes. Given its good equations with all sides, India can be a great help in keeping diplomatic channels open and coordinating with key regional actors. Often in diplomacy, it is the invisible hand that shapes visible outcomes.

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