Global Watch | The ‘Great Bend’ Gamble: China’s Mega-Dam Is Rising Where The Himalayas Are Still Breaking

The project is located in one of the Himalayas’ most geologically complex areas, marked by steep terrain, deep gorges, and active fault systems

The Yarlung Tsangpo is one of Asia’s most important transboundary rivers. It begins on the Tibetan Plateau, flows across southern Tibet, and then turns sharply around Namcha Barwa before entering India as the Siang. This dramatic bend, commonly known as the Great Bend, gives the river an unusually steep fall over a relatively short distance. That natural gradient has made the area highly attractive for hydropower generation and is the main reason China selected the lower reaches of the river for its largest planned hydropower project. The project is located in one of the Himalayas’ most geologically complex areas, marked by steep terrain, deep gorges, and active fault systems. These conditions do not rule out construction, but they demand rigorous geological assessment, continuous monitoring and strong safeguards for dams, tunnels, roads, bridges and power facilities.

Chinese geologists have raised specific concerns about the Paizhen Fault, which crosses the wider project and infrastructure zone. A June 2026 study in Sedimentary Geology and Tethyan Geology reported that the fault has remained active since the Pleistocene. Prolonged movement has fractured and weakened local rock formations, which may reduce the stability of dam foundations and associated infrastructure. The study also warned that seismic activity and long-term water infiltration could further destabilise slopes, increasing the risk of landslides, rock collapses and structural damage. The findings are significant because the research involved Chengdu University of Technology, the China Geological Survey’s Civil-Military Integration Centre and a natural-resources observation station on the river. They also reinforce a 2022 study by Chinese geological institutions, which identified surface fault rupture, deep-tunnel hazards, unstable mountain masses and cascading regional disasters as major risks and questioned whether conventional site-selection methods were adequate for such terrain.

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Beijing approved the project in December 2024, and construction formally began on July 19, 2025. Planned as a five-station cascade, it carries an estimated investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan and is expected to generate around 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually. The site was chosen because the river drops by roughly 2,000 metres over........

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