Opinion | Understanding The Attrition Game Over West Asia

The belligerent that emerges on top of this struggle will hold a crucial advantage in any future negotiations—or even in a potential continuation of the war

On the fourth day of the war, Iran is continuing to launch unceasing waves of ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as long-range attack drones, against targets located in the Gulf states—foremost among them military bases and garrisons used by US forces, but also oil infrastructure and other objectives of symbolic value such as the US embassies in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.

According to an assessment by the Jerusalem Post, as many as 375 short-range (100 to 1,000 kilometres) ballistic missiles and 845 attack drones were launched against Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates alone, not counting those released against targets in Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Moreover, the Iranians have in the meantime launched at least 350 medium-range (1,000 to 2,000 kilometres) ballistic missiles against targets in Israel, while several volleys were also directed at the Muwaffaq al-Salti Air Base in Jordan—the latter being a crucial hub for US aviation operating in West Asia.

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Estimates of the number of medium-range ballistic missiles held by Iran vary tremendously from one source to another. The Israelis estimated, for instance, that Iran had between 1,000 and 1,500 such weapons left at the end of the 2025 Twelve-Day War, and that several hundred more have been inducted since then. It is also widely assessed that Tehran has stockpiled several thousand of the much easier-to-produce short-range ballistic missiles, as well as even greater numbers of the well-known Shahed-136 attack drones and smaller numbers of cruise missiles or jet-propelled attack drones such as the Shahed-238.

However, the bulk of these missiles and drones are destroyed before they reach their targets by the wide array of air defence systems operated by the Americans, the Israelis, the Gulf states, and other allies. While drones can be neutralised by multiple weapons systems—including anti-aircraft guns, short-, medium-, and long-range surface-to-air missile batteries, jamming systems, and fighter aircraft—ballistic missiles present a far more difficult challenge. Indeed, only a limited number of systems, such as the American Patriot and THAAD or the Israeli David’s Sling and Arrow 2 and 3, are able to intercept ballistic missiles as they dive toward their targets at extremely high speeds.

Because of these capabilities, such systems—and the interceptor missiles they launch—are not only extremely costly but also slow to produce, with a single Patriot interceptor missile costing around 4 million USD. Moreover, the standard procedure is for the defender to fire two interceptors at a single incoming ballistic missile in order to maximise the chances of success.

Naturally, the status of the interceptor missile stockpiles owned by the belligerents is a closely guarded military secret, with a few rare exceptions. For example, Qatar is known to have purchased 10 Patriot batteries and 1,000 interceptor missiles, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, an independent international institute dedicated to research into conflict, armaments, arms control, and disarmament.

Meanwhile, it is known that only roughly 500 Patriot interceptor missiles were produced by Lockheed Martin in 2024 and another 600 in 2025, and that these missiles are in such high demand that Ukraine has never received enough interceptors to fully utilise the Patriot batteries it received from NATO countries. The situation is even more uncertain regarding the interceptor missiles used by the Arrow, David’s Sling, THAAD systems, and US Navy warships, even though in June 2025 a US Navy officer mentioned that the rate of consumption of interception missiles used to counter Iranian strikes against Israel was “alarming".

Because of this relative scarcity of interceptor missiles, both the American and Israeli air forces are flying hundreds of sorties daily with their drones and manned combat aircraft in an attempt to detect and destroy Iranian missile and drone launchers. The task is daunting, however, as Iran is an immense and mountainous country on the one hand, while the Iranian air defence array continues to pose a threat on the other because it operates in “guerrilla mode", hiding its systems and activating them only if a suitable target comes well within range. As it turns out, after three days of such operations, the destruction of only eight missile launchers had been independently confirmed by the open-source intelligence researcher Elmustek, while Iran has at least 500 of them in its inventory.

Therefore, the attrition war between Iranian missile operators and the anti-missile defences operated by the Americans, the Israelis, and their allies continues. The belligerent that emerges on top of this struggle will hold a crucial advantage in any future negotiations—or even in a potential continuation of the war in the coming weeks and perhaps months.

Adrien Fontanellaz is a military historian and defence analyst. Views expressed are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.

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