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Opinion | India An Oasis In The Desert Of A Fractured World: 2026 Economic Survey

6 15
31.01.2026

India has truly been an oasis of economic performance in the global scenario. We recently signed the ‘mother of all deals’, i.e., India-EU Free Trade Agreement, and also negotiated around seven such deals with other nations in the last five years, and eight others are under negotiation.

While this sends an important signal to distorted global order, let us look at the recently launched Economic Survey 2025-26 by our Chief Economic Adviser (CEA). An Economic Survey is a document to look back, on our finances, on our growth and on our fiscal vision for the upcoming year. This year, we are back to basics — manufacturing, MSMEs and skilling. But also looking forward to urbanisation, AI and nuclear energy.

We will continue to be the world’s fastest growing economy with GDP growth rate projected to be 6.8-7.2 per cent. From Covid year FY21’s fiscal deficit of 9.2 per cent, we have come down to nearly half at 4.4 per cent this FY26. How could we do this? By increasing tax buoyancy and improving quality of expenditure (capital expenditure).

Rupee is not at its best health, but it will improve as we would have better forex reserves. The flow of resources to the commercial sector has been positive, which should be the focus as private players march towards investments in the economy. We need to generate more investor interest and export earnings.

Inflation has been headlined as ‘tamed’ and ‘anchored’ with Consumer Price Index (CPI) reaching a historic low averaging 1.7 per cent during the first nine months of the fiscal year, positioning the Indian economy in a “Goldilocks" phase where growth is........

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