Opinion | Trump’s Praise May Embolden Pakistan To Plunge Deeper Into Chaos In Afghanistan

By describing Pakistan’s strikes as “self-defence” and praising its leaders, Trump has provided international cover for conflict escalation.

Praise from the biggest bully in class can come with unintended consequences, especially if one is weak and has to go home to an extremely messy and hostile neighbourhood.

In the middle of Pakistan’s “open war" on the Taliban regime in Kabul after airstrikes on February 27, US President Donald Trump has publicly praised Pakistan’s leadership — which lately prostrated before him to the point of officially recommending him for the Nobel prize — during a White House press interaction.

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Trump called Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif a “great prime minister" and chief of army staff Asim Munir a “great general". He said he gets along “very, very well" with Pakistan and that the country was doing “terrifically well", ironic when the country’s entire economy is on ventilator, with IMF loans saving it from bankruptcy.

Will the US jump into the conflict?

Trump demurred on that, merely saying Pakistan has the “right to defend itself". Rampage in AfPak could actually be a boon for Americans, who do not have much economic stake in the region. The war threatens to wreck China’s investments in Pakistan through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

But Trump’s praise may have a grimmer impact on Pakistan. Because it is likely to embolden Islamabad to plunge headlong into dark, violent chaos across the Durand Line. It may expose Islamabad’s internal vulnerabilities like economic strain and domestic unrest.

By describing Pakistan’s strikes as “self-defence" and praising its leaders, Trump has provided international cover for conflict escalation. It goads the Pakistan Army under Asim Munir to carry out more brazen operations against the Afghan Taliban when there is already global attention on rising civilian casualties including that of children.

Trump’s endorsement also gives PM Shehbaz Sharif a relief from severe internal challenges including inflation, political instability over Imran Khan’s incarceration, and anti-army sentiment.

But does Pakistan have defence funds for escalation?

Will the US give it money for an ongoing and debilitating military campaign, which any war in Afghanistan tends to be (who knows it better than America)?

Such a war also exposes Pakistan to escalating domestic conflicts in Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Sindh. Strain on the military is showing in each of these conflict theatres, and India and Iran would be watching developments closely.

It also creates ripe ground for refugee inflows from Afghanistan and PTI-led anti-government protests. Also, both being Sunni-majority Muslim countries, the Pakistani citizenry will quickly run out of patience and sympathy for a war which brutalises fellow Sunnis.

One counter-argument is that Trump’s praise may lead to de-escalation by backchannel US mediation. But Trump is not known for such neat diplomacy.

The US President may have singled out Pakistan for the most corrosive kind of compliment.

Abhijit Majumder is the author of the book, ‘India’s New Right’. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views

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