Transcript: Fox Poll Shocker Undercuts Trump’s Delusional Midterm Rant

As Fox News polling shows serious slippage for Trump in unexpected places, a Democratic strategist ponders whether his party can pull off miracles in Texas and other red states.

The following is a lightly edited transcript of the August 4 episode of the Daily Blast podcast. Listen to it here.

Greg Sargent: This is The Daily Blast from The New Republic, produced and presented by the DSR Network. I’m your host, Greg Sargent.

A Fox News poll of Texas shows Democrat James Talarico leading by three points. But here’s what’s really striking about this survey. It finds Donald Trump underwater by nine points in Texas, a state that he won by fourteen points less than two years ago. Those are stunning numbers for the Lone Star State, and if Democrats are suddenly competitive for the Senate, numbers like that explain why.

All this comes as Trump just unleashed a crazed tirade about his poll numbers, one that strongly suggests he has zero interest in helping his party in the midterms. It now feels like time is running out for Trump to turn things around, and we may be within striking distance of getting the election that Democrats really want. So we’re talking about all of it with Democratic strategist Sawyer Hackett, who knows Texas and has worked on midterm elections as well. Sawyer, good to have you back on.

Sawyer Hackett: Great to be with you, Greg.

Sargent: So let’s just start with this bizarre rant from Trump. He posted this: “My real poll numbers, not those made up by the fake news media, are the best they have ever been. And why wouldn’t they be with the biggest tax cuts and employment numbers ever, the biggest outside investment in America and world history? A totally secure border, a giant victory in Venezuela, the denuclearization of Iran. Unparalleled respect and success throughout the world, and much more.”

Sawyer, does that litany of made-up successes sound like a description of what majorities see in this presidency?

Hackett: Based on the polling that we’re seeing across the country right now, it looks like Donald Trump’s coalition has fallen apart. I mean, he’s atrophied severely with Latino voters, atrophied severely with Black voters, atrophied severely with young voters, and especially independent voters who are running away from him across the country in all of these major swing states, in all of these states where we have major Senate races. And that’s really going to be the tipping point, I think, for the midterm cycle.

Sargent: And by every metric, things are not going in the right direction. Let’s talk about this Fox News poll of Texas. It finds Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton by 51 to 48 among registered voters.

Before we get into the head-to-head, let’s talk about Trump’s numbers in Texas. CNN’s Harry Enten flagged this. Fox has 54 percent viewing him unfavorably there versus 45 percent viewing him favorably. Sawyer, as someone who knows Texas, can you explain how shocking it is for Trump to be nine points underwater in that state?

Hackett: It’s absolutely shocking for him to be nine points underwater in the state, especially this far out from the election. I mean, Donald Trump won Texas by, I think, more than thirteen points in 2024. It’s a state that has consistently been red for the last thirty years.

I mean, we haven’t elected a statewide Democrat in Texas for many, many decades. And so, you know, over cycle over cycle, we’ve gotten closer and closer to kind of flipping the state, but Republican numbers, especially Republican incumbents, have always kind of performed better in Texas, because it is a state that is fairly conservative. It’s also a state that’s fairly independent.

It’s one of the most unaffiliated states in the country. And those voters, while they claim to be independent, tend to break towards conservatives, tend to break towards Republicans in some of these statewide races. And so yeah, it’s shocking to see Trump underwater nine points with still a couple more months—three or four more months—until the election, when this is a state just a year and a half ago that Trump won by almost fourteen points.

Sargent: You brought up independents. The Fox poll finds that 78 percent of independents view Trump unfavorably versus 18 percent who view him favorably. That’s sixty points underwater. And 50 percent of independents in Texas in the Fox poll have a strongly unfavorable view of Trump. Sawyer, have you ever heard of numbers like that? And can you explain why independents matter so much in Texas?

Hackett: Yeah, as I mentioned before, independents make up a huge chunk of the electorate in Texas. It’s one of the most unaffiliated states in the country. And I think independents have largely shaped how Democrats have performed over the last 30 years. As I mentioned, they’ve kind of broken towards Republicans, towards conservatives in each of these statewide races.

But I think independent voters,........

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