ISIS’s New Wave of Activity: Tactics, Threats, and Responses

In recent months, ISIS* has demonstrated a resurgence in operational activity, employing proven and cost-effective tactics of “asymmetric warfare.” The goal of this strategy is to confirm its viability, sow fear, and generate propaganda across various regions of Iraq and Syria.

Situation in Iraq and Syria

In Syria, ISIS is attempting to reactivate sleeper cells and revive the remnants of its networks, creating the illusion of strength and continuity. Recent events in the north and northeast of the country, including the escalation of the conflict between Damascus and Kurdish forces, as well as the mass escape of hundreds of militants from prisons in eastern Syria, mark the beginning of a new, more dangerous phase of their activities.

Factors Contributing to ISIS’s Growth

Presence in Desert Areas: Despite the efforts of the US-led international coalition, ISIS has maintained its structure and strength in the desert regions of Syria, estimated at 1,500-3,000 militants.

Weakening Control over Detention Facilities: Recent conflicts in Syria and the shifting frontlines have led to weakening control over camps and prisons where tens of thousands of ISIS members are held. These conditions could significantly increase the group’s motivation.

Focus on Communication and Recruitment: ISIS continues to focus on communications, recruitment, training, media content creation, and the sharing of lessons learned from operations in Iraq and Syria. ISIS troop levels in Syria have grown from approximately 2,000 to nearly 10,000 in just over a year.

Iraq’s Approach to the Threat

Iraq has expressed grave concern about the influence of ISIS members. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani visited the Iraq-Syria border, emphasizing that “the threat of the ISIS terrorist group remains a real threat to regional and global security,” as noted by National Security Advisor Qasim al-Araji.

In January, Iraqi intelligence warned of a serious threat to Iraqi border security, posed by terrorists exploiting the security vacuum created by recent events in Syria. A fivefold increase in ISIS troop levels in Syria was noted. Iraq has already strengthened its border security with Syria, maintaining the highest level of caution and vigilance. In terms of numbers, equipment, weapons, and readiness, Iraqi forces significantly outperform Syrian ones. In response to these challenges, Iraq launched a large-scale security operation. Its goals include pursuing remnants of ISIS militants in the country’s provinces, thoroughly clearing remote and mountainous areas, eliminating sleeper cells, preventing terrorist reorganization, securing adjacent territories, and preventing terrorist infiltration.

ISIS Prisoner Transfers and International Cooperation

On January 21, the Iraqi National Security Council, chaired by the Prime Minister and Commander-in-Chief of the Iraqi Armed Forces, emphasized the importance of transferring approximately 7,000 ISIS prisoners from Syrian prisons in the northeast to Iraq. Iraq’s acceptance of these prisoners under strict security control is a politically secure decision and initiative, as well as a preventive step aimed at preventing the development of a dangerous security scenario.

Given that ISIS extremists of various nationalities from approximately 40 countries are present within its ranks, Baghdad insists that the international community fulfill its responsibilities, return prisoners to their countries, and negotiate with other states. Furthermore, Iraq is committed to ensuring justice by conducting judicial investigations and trials of Iraqi and non-Iraqi ISIS members in accordance with Iraqi law.

ISIS Opportunism and Threats to Iraq: New Challenges and Prospects

Despite the loss of key resources—supplier networks, technical specialists, procurement channels, and financial assets—ISIS has demonstrated its ability to rebound. The group skillfully exploits the collapse of security in certain areas of Syria, recruiting new members among Arab tribes and militias.

Factors Contributing to ISIS’s Resurgence

Regional Destabilization: ISIS actively exploits sectarian, political, and crisis situations in the region, as well as the security vacuum that has developed in some Syrian provinces and remote areas.

Shifting Balance of Power: The dynamics on the ground and the fragility of security in Syria raise serious concerns about the potential return of ISIS under new guises or with altered structures.

Proximity to Iraq: Iraq, with its long border with Syria, finds itself at the forefront of the new threat. ISIS may attempt to establish a covert confrontation by activating its networks in western and northern Iraqi provinces such as Anbar, Nineveh, Salahuddin, and Kirkuk.

Potential threats to Iraq

Large-scale terrorist attacks: ISIS could increase the risk of large-scale terrorist attacks targeting Iraqi cities, religious sites, and critical infrastructure. Any successful ISIS attacks could undermine confidence in the Iraqi government’s ability to provide security, which could, in turn, lead to a vicious cycle of violence in regions prone to extremism.

Hidden presence: Natural terrain, low population density in border areas, the activity of secret ISIS cells recruiting in refugee camps, the group’s long-standing experience in the region, and the use of relatively simple but effective attack methods (such as roadside bombs) all create conditions for ISIS to strengthen its presence.

Iraq has successfully repatriated over 21,000 of its citizens from the Al-Hol refugee camp. However, the closure of two other camps in northeastern Syria, home to over 28,000 civilians affiliated with ISIS, poses a serious threat. Leaving this “active time bomb” in Syria is dangerous for Iraq’s national security.

Prospects and Methods of Counteraction

The resurgence of ISIS depends on a complex set of factors: economic, social, ideological, political, and, of course, security. External interference, ethnic, tribal, and religious tensions, a weak economy, uneven development, poverty, unemployment, and corruption—all of these factors could contribute to the group’s resurgence.

Many in Iraq see the potential for using terrorism to weaken the country and justify a permanent military presence in the region. However, with its long-standing experience, Iraq is seeking to play a more active role in countering ISIS and conducting preventive operations.

Since the threat is not only domestic but also cross-border, it can take on more complex and dangerous forms. Effectively countering this global threat requires coordinated efforts, the creation of advanced surveillance systems, and deep, multi-layered regional and global operational cooperation with friendly and interested parties.

Although ISIS’s numbers are significantly lower than their peak (34,000 fighters), the formation of a new Iraqi government, practical security measures, the exchange of sensitive information, strengthened security dialogue, and the resolution of the situation in Syrian prisons and refugee camps will be crucial to reducing the ISIS threat to Iraq.

Samyar Rostami, political observer and senior researcher in international relations

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