Iran’s Interests and the Mecca Defense Pact

Iran’s future response will likely entail close monitoring of both the opportunities and threats posed by the Mecca Pact. Tehran is also expected to welcome any cooperative frameworks directed against Israeli and Western interests, as well as intra-Islamic collaboration.

The cornerstone clause of the “Mecca Agreement” rests squarely on the principle of collective self-defense, explicitly dictating that an armed attack against any of the three state parties shall be construed as an attack on all parties to the accord.

The pact was signed on the basis of a preliminary agreement reached between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia in September of the previous year.

The driving factors behind the formation of this trilateral alliance can be traced to several key developments: shared security concerns across the Middle East, the US–Israeli military threat against Iran, grave apprehensions regarding Riyadh’s capacity to safeguard its domestic security and sustain its oil exports, and a direct reaction to Israel’s regional posture.

Motivations such as the deepening distrust towards Washington’s protective umbrella, rapid military developments, the severe erosion of traditional deterrence in the region, recent military conflicts, and the attacks by Israel and the US on Iran are also important.

For Arab countries, reducing complete dependence on a single external guarantor is meaningful. Saudi Arabia also takes seriously threats related to forces aligned with Iran.

Implications for Iran

For Iran, the main real risk is any pact turning into a permanent, multi-layered, and anti-Iranian security network. Certainly, the formation of any regional anti-Iranian security network will complicate Iran’s peripheral environment.

Through official statements and explanations from Turkey and Saudi Arabia, efforts have largely been made to distance the agreement from an anti-Iranian coalition. The emphasis on its defensive nature, the avoidance of targeting any specific country, and the possibility of other regional countries joining, indicate that the designers of the agreement do not intend to turn it into a pact against Iran.

While Iran is not explicitly referenced in the text of the accord, the consequent increase in military........

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