America Is Leaving Iraq, Not the Middle East

America’s last troops have left Iraq, but anyone looking for a US withdrawal from the Middle East is looking in the wrong place.

The end of the Iraq model

It is tempting to see the withdrawal as another milestone in America’s long-promised disengagement from the Middle East. Washington has spent more than a decade trying to shift strategic attention towards China and the Indo-Pacific. Barack Obama spoke of a “pivot” to Asia; Donald Trump repeatedly denounced America’s “endless wars”; Joe Biden withdrew from Afghanistan. Now Trump has completed the withdrawal from Iraq. But leaving Iraq is not the same as leaving the Middle East.

The clearest evidence comes from the US military itself. In August, the commander of US Central Command, Admiral Brad Cooper, toured Bahrain, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, as well as an American aircraft carrier operating in the Arabian Sea. CENTCOM reported that more than 50,000 American service members were operating across the Middle East. Thousands of additional troops have very recently been deployed.

Nor has the mission conducted from Iraq simply disappeared. CENTCOM says the withdrawal represents a transition towards a bilateral US-Iraq defence relationship. The Combined Joint Task Force responsible for Operation Inherent Resolve remains operational, but its headquarters has moved to Jordan, from where the United States continues counter-ISIS operations in Syria alongside its partners.

Iraq therefore illustrates something more consequential than American retreat. What is disappearing is a particular model of American power: the post-9/11 reliance on prolonged ground deployments, counterinsurgency and direct responsibility for another country’s internal security. The emerging model seeks to achieve regional objectives without another Iraq.

From occupation to power projection

The new American posture is........

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