Will Trump Achieve Netanyahu’s Goals in Iran?

Donald Trump’s unprovoked war against Iran marked a shift in US foreign policy: from the principle of “America First” to “Israel First.” What will be the consequences of the second American-Israeli war against Iran?

Israel Initiates a New Phase of the Conflict with Iran

The feature that distinguished this second US-Israeli military campaign from the previous one was the preliminary intensification of anti-government protests in Iran. The aim was to provoke crackdowns from Tehran in order to subsequently accuse it of brutally suppressing demonstrators and demand the overthrow of the theocratic regime.

The US demands on Tehran, coordinated with Israel in advance, were unacceptable for the sovereign Iranian state. Despite this, Tehran, aware of the futility of diplomacy with Washington, nonetheless agreed to negotiations with the American side to demonstrate to the international community its commitment to peace and its willingness to make reasonable compromises.

Iranian authorities publicly denied any intention to develop nuclear weapons, with reference to the relevant fatwa from their Supreme Leader, which declares such developments incompatible with the values of Islam. However, as Tehran showed readiness for compromise, Washington, under pressure from Tel Aviv, hardened its demands, insisting on dismantling the missile programme and on regime change.

On the morning of 28 February, Iran was subjected to massive airstrikes by the Israeli and US Air Forces, which starkly demonstrated the aggressive nature of the American-Israeli alliance. There are grounds to believe that President Trump made this decision under pressure from the Israeli side and its influential diaspora in the United States. Some experts even link the leak of information regarding the scandalous case of the late financier Epstein to an operation of “Mossad” aimed at coercing the US authorities into attacking Iran.

The nature of the military actions by the American-Israeli coalition against Iran indicates a high degree of coordination between the military departments and foreign intelligence agencies of the two countries. The CIA and Mossad managed to obtain precise data on the whereabouts of senior political and military figures of the Islamic Republic targeted for elimination in the initial phase of the war. As a result, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and heads of security agencies were killed.

The United States has deployed significant forces to the Middle East. Practically, all the American military bases in the region (with the exception of Turkey) are involved in the conflict against Iran. Israel and the US are employing a tactic of massive and regular aerial (aviation and missile) strikes on Iranian territory. Targets include decision-making centers, military and vital infrastructure, and communication lines, as well as civilian institutions – schools, hospitals, hotels, and residential complexes.

Tehran has officially warned all countries in the region against permitting the use of their territory and airspace for the US and Israeli attacks on Iran. In response, Iran is actively striking, primarily, the territory of Israel and other regional countries (Bahrain, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, and Jordan, in particular) that host US military bases. US embassies, for example in Kuwait, are also exposed to strikes carried out by Iran.

The geography of the combat operations is taking on a regional character and extending beyond the Middle East. For instance, Cyprus, where Royal Air Force bases are located, has also been targeted, as Prime Minister Keir Starmer has agreed to the US using British airbases against Iran.

According to US senators, the intensive nature of combat operations against Iran can only be sustained for a limited period of time. The attacking US and Israel are rapidly depleting their capabilities for active strikes, particularly due to a shortage of munitions for their air forces and air defence systems to repel Iranian missile and drone attacks. The rate at which munitions and air defence systems are being used is disproportionate to their production rate. Hence, it provides for Iran employing a tactic of prolonged conflict and inflicting a painful blow on the interests of the US.

According to Democratic Congressman Jim Himes, President Trump has no clear plan for ending the war with Iran. In this regard, the American publication The American Conservative notes: “In a protracted conflict, American troops will succumb.”

International Reaction to the Aggression against Iran

The reaction of the international community to this conflict has turned out predictable, reflecting the current contradictory global situation. Russia and China strongly condemned the anti-Iranian aggression and jointly called for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council. At the same time, the leading European powers – Britain, France, and Germany – supported the actions of the US and Israel, expressing readiness to provide them with military assistance.

Countries of the Islamic world formally condemned the war initiated by Israel against Iran. However, the majority of Arab states in the Persian Gulf condemned Iran for strikes on their territory, not ruling out their collective military response to Tehran. Nevertheless, several Islamic countries (for example, Kuwait, Iraq, Pakistan) have seen people taking to the streets, with protestors storming US diplomatic mission buildings.

Turkey’s Distinct Position in the Iranian Conflict

Turkey’s stance, as that of a NATO member, deserves particular attention. President R. Erdoğan condemned the actions of Israel and the US against Iran. Unlike other countries in the region hosting US military bases, Turkey has closed its borders and airspace for use in the Iranian conflict. Ankara is demonstrating its unwillingness to enter the war with Iran. The pieces of news about alleged explosions at the US Incirlik Air Base in Adana, which appeared in Turkish media on 1 March, were not confirmed by the authorities and were deemed a provocation.

It cannot be ruled out that Iran is receiving military-technical assistance from its partners – Russia, China, and North Korea. Nevertheless, Iran is independent in conducting combat operations against the enemy. The only forces that have expressed readiness to provide military support to Iran are Lebanese Hezbollah and the Yemeni Houthis. In response to this, the IDF has launched a fourth war in southern Lebanon.

Repercussions of the Conflict: Scenarios for Developments in Iran

US President Donald Trump has stated that the military operation against Iran, initially scheduled for 4-5 weeks, may be extended.

The main achievements of the American-Israeli coalition are considered to be the elimination of the spiritual leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and several heads of Iran’s security agencies. Trump may present this as a successful change of an undesirable leadership or even regime. It is noteworthy that the US and Israel are not seeking to eliminate Iran’s incumbent president, Masoud Pezeshkian, possibly viewing him as a potential partner for negotiations and compromises.

However, the situation in Iran is far from being stabilised. Thousands are participating in rallies across the country in support of the current regime and calling for revenge against the US and Israel for the killing of Ayatollah Khamenei. War against an external enemy will likely unite Iranian society.

At the same time, the intelligence services of Israel, the US, and Britain may attempt to “cash in on” the factor of ethnic separatism (Kurdish, Azerbaijani, Baloch) to destabilise Iranian statehood. Netanyahu has already voiced such appeals in his speeches. Tel Aviv and Washington’s goal is to weaken Iran and deprive it of the ability to elect a new leader without their approval.

If the theocratic regime transforms into a secular one or gives way to a military dictatorship of the IRGC, the region will face a new reality. However, without a ground military operation, neither the US nor Israel can claim victory in the war against Iran. Consequently, no act of capitulation or peace treaty will be signed by the parties.

Ongoing hostilities are already destabilising global energy markets. Iran is partially blocking the Strait of Hormuz, attacking Western oil tankers, and destroying large refineries and oil fields in Arab states of the Persian Gulf. This tactic has already led to rising oil prices due to shortages. A similar situation could arise in the gas market should Iran begin destroying pipelines in the region. By the third day of the war, gas prices in Europe had already risen by 20% and could double within a month.

Prolonging the conflict with Iran will also incite a negative reaction within the US per se. According to polls, only 27% of Americans support this war. Increasing losses among US military personnel, the destruction of American military, diplomatic, and economic facilities in the Middle East, as well as possible terrorist acts (whether initiated by Iranian intelligence or spontaneous, involving religious extremists) in the West, could lead to the impeachment of President D. Trump.

It is therefore evident that the US has no precise plan of action in case of a protracted conflict with Iran. Operation “Epic Fury” is running the risks of ending up as an “epic folly,” repeating the fate of the unfortunate US experience in Vietnam, Syria, and Afghanistan.

Alexander SVARANTS – PhD in Politics, Professor, Specialist in Turkish Studies, Expert on Middle Eastern Countries

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