Trade Contradictions between Turkey and China: A Growing Threat to Turkish Exports

The slowdown in Turkish exports and the gradual ousting of Turkish products by Chinese goods from the markets of Europe, Africa and the Middle East are starting to ring the alarm bells in Ankara.

Reasons for the Decline in the Competitiveness of Turkish Goods

Persistently high inflation in Turkey has given rise to a currency-price crisis and has brought about a sharp increase in production costs. At the same time, the Central Bank’s tight policy of holding the lira exchange rate has made Turkish exports too expensive when converted into hard currency—dollars and euros.

Against this backdrop, the growth of the competitiveness of Turkish goods is slowing down, their presence in foreign markets is shrinking, and Turkey increasingly faces the displacement of its own products from traditional sales destinations. The trade imbalance in China’s favor is particularly noticeable, as China steps up exports and increases pressure on the Turkish domestic market.

In 2025, Turkey’s imports of Chinese goods reached USD 42 billion, whereas in 2020 the figure stood at USD 20 billion. At the same time, Chinese exports to Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Central Asia are growing rapidly, while Turkish exports are slowing down.

Chinese goods, which enjoy state support, enter the Turkish market at relatively low prices and bear down on a whole range of industries—from mechanical engineering to the consumer goods sector.

Thus, in 2023 Turkey imported machinery worth USD 11 billion from China, which accounted for a quarter of the country’s total imports. In this regard, Kutlu Karavelioğlu, President of the Turkish Machinery Exporters’ Association, pinpointed: “We can export expensive equipment to Europe, but at the same time we scarcely have access to the Chinese market, which remains largely closed to us, whereas our market........

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