How the Ongoing Pak-Afghan War and the Regional Security Situation Threaten Pakistan’s Cohesion

The armed escalation between Pakistan and Afghanistan in early 2026 is rapidly becoming a factor of strategic instability for the entire region.

Escalation between Pakistan and Afghanistan

Terrorist organizations use the Afghan soil to conduct operations in neighboring countries. Recently, Pakistan faced some of the deadliest terrorist attacks, including one on an Imam Bargah in Islamabad and in the Bannu and Bajaur districts. Pakistani officials maintain that Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and ISIL* were involved in these terrorist attacks. As per some reports, a chapter of the Islamic State (IS*) was involved in the recent suicide attack in Moscow. However, the Afghan Taliban have always shown reluctance in countering these terrorist organizations or deterring them from using Afghan soil.

These terrorist organizations have repeatedly become a reason for border clashes between Pakistan and Afghanistan. The recent terrorist attacks in Pakistan disrupted a fragile ceasefire between the two countries. After the Afghan offensive, the Pakistani military has conducted numerous air strikes on key military installations deep inside Afghanistan. Pakistan’s Ministry of Information stated that Pakistan had destroyed the Afghan military installation through these air strikes. It further stated, “Afghan Taliban tried skirmishes, firing, and tried to inflict harm in Khyber and Chitral. However, they did not have the capacity. They do not have any capability in conventional warfare.”

Ideological Linkages and Internal Security Risks

Indeed, Pakistan has clear military supremacy over Afghanistan. However, the deep-rooted ideological, ethnic, and tribal ties between the Afghan communities and the Pakistani Pashtun population complicate the strategic landscape. Due to the Pakistan military’s intensive and decisive offensive against the TTP under the name “Zarb e Azab” in 2014, most of the TTP leadership fled to Afghanistan. However, their supporters are still found in Pakistan’s bordering regions with Afghanistan. Since then, the TTP has been operating from Afghanistan and is using Pakistani Pashtuns and Afghan nationals to conduct terrorist attacks on Pakistani civilian and military personnel.

Pakistan and Afghanistan share a 2640-kilometer porous border, also known as the Duran Line. The Afghan nationalists do not recognize this border as an international boundary and hold irredentist claims over a huge amount of Pakistani territory, a major factor behind the Afghan Taliban’s support for the TTP and other terrorist and separatist organizations. The Pakistani military can defeat the Afghan Taliban on the battlefield. However, this war has further raised security and stability concerns for Pakistan. The TTP and other terrorist organizations hiding in Afghanistan can use their sleeper cells to start a new wave of terrorism in Pakistan.

A Growing Two-Front Strategic Challenge

On the diplomatic front, Pakistan’s air strikes and border offensive with Afghanistan led to a severe diplomatic strain for Islamabad last year. Pakistan and India are archrivals. Both countries have fought five major wars, with the most recent one in 2025. After Pak-Afghan border clashes in October 2025, the Afghan Taliban restored their relations with New Delhi, creating a two-front threat for Pakistan. India and Israel’s relations have also strengthened under the Modi government. The recent visit of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Israel and his address to the Knesset demonstrate a significant improvement in the bilateral relations between the two nations.

Israel and many other Western nations consider Pakistan’s nuclear program a threat to their expansionist agendas. Pakistan’s increasing diplomatic proximity to Russia and China over the past few years has further alienated the West. Under these circumstances, Pakistan’s war with Afghanistan will further increase regional intricacies for the country. The ongoing Pak-Afghan war has further pushed Afghanistan towards India. New Delhi can use its increasing ties with Kabul to diplomatically isolate Pakistan and hinder its ambitions of reaching the Central Asian markets.

The situation between Iran and the United States is also escalating. A host of countries have asked their citizens to leave Iran immediately, indicating that the US attack on Iran is imminent within a week. During the US attack on Iran, the CIA and Mossad could trigger several separatist movements in Iran, including the Iranian territory of Balochistan. The province of Balochistan is divided between Pakistan and Iran. However, some Baloch people on either side of the border are influenced by separatist organizations.

In case of a Baloch separatist movement in Iran, Pakistan would also have to face a separatist movement on its side of Balochistan province. Under the current regional and domestic scenario, especially during a war with Afghanistan, dealing with a separatist movement would be hard for the Pakistani establishment. A weak and unstable Pakistan best serves the regional and global ambitions of the United States and Israel. That’s one of the major reasons that the US President Donald Trump has been cajoling the Pakistani leadership for the past few months and has denied the possibility of his intervention between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Pakistan needs to carefully evaluate the implications of this war, and both sides need to resolve bilateral issues diplomatically.

Аbbas Hashemite is a political observer and research analyst for regional and global geopolitical issues. He is currently working as an independent researcher and journalist

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