Opinion: Seats In South And West That Hold Key To Tamil Nadu

Updated: Apr 18, 2026 17:43 pm IST Published On Apr 18, 2026 17:40 pm IST Last Updated On Apr 18, 2026 17:43 pm IST

Published On Apr 18, 2026 17:40 pm IST

Last Updated On Apr 18, 2026 17:43 pm IST

In an earlier opinion piece on the Tamil Nadu elections, I had stated that this election is not a big wave election, but one that's being fought on a seat-by-seat basis. In any general election, there are tough contests and then there are defining battles.

The first is about candidates; the second will reveal a battle that's bigger--one that could reflect a decisive trend that will determine the overall result. From our extensive travel across the state, below are the defining contests and why. This is not about high-profile candidates; this piece is about the key contest seats in the western and southern districts.

In the next piece, I will list out Central (Delta districts), north Tamil Nadu, and Chennai city seats to watch out for.

The AIADMK alliance swept this region in 2021, winning 46 out of 61 seats here. It swept Salem with 10 of 11 seats, won all 10 in Coimbatore, six of eight in Tiruppur, five of eight in Erode, and all five in Dharmapuri. In Namakkal, it won only two of six, and in the hilly Nilgiris, it lost all three.

The reason this is important is because Coimbatore, Tiruppur, Erode, Salem, and Dharmapuri are the districts where the DMK must make gains this time to offset losses elsewhere. The DMK had a full sweep in Chennai and peaked in the north and central districts and the south in 2021. If it faces losses after five years in power in these regions, the only space for gains, arguably, is in the west.

This seat will show if the DMK's most powerful face in the region--the one known for his organizational might and the one facing ED cases, former minister Senthil Balaji--can rewrite the DMK's Coimbatore calculus. In fact, across this region, the candidates have been selected by Senthil Balaji, who has vacated his traditional Karur seat to contest from here and prove a point.

The BJP's Vanathi Srinivasan (AIADMK alliance) beat MNM Chief and actor Kamal Haasan (DMK alliance) by less than 2,000 votes in 2021. She has shifted to Coimbatore North and Senthil Balaji is facing off with AIADMK strongman Amman K Arjunan, who won Coimbatore North in 2021 and is now contesting from here.

Results here will test whether the AIADMK can hold on to its bastion. Vijay's TVK and Seeman's NTK are also factors here, and the impact they will have on a classic AIADMK vs DMK battle is being closely watched.

2. Gobichettipalayam (Erode district)

Eight-time AIADMK MLA from this seat and now one of the TVK's biggest faces, KA Sengottayan, will show whether the loyalty to "Two Leaves", which is deep and emotional, can shift to the TVK's whistle on voting day. The AIADMK has fielded a young VB Prabhu to take on Sengottayan. In 2021, the DMK had lost by over 25,000 votes, but if the AIADMK vote gets split, it could throw open an opportunity for the DMK.

In the big picture, this seat will show how strong the 'Two Leaves' vote is in seats where former AIADMK leaders have shifted to the TVK. It's also a crucial test for the TVK on whether it can win seats. The possible tacit grassroots understandings........

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