In a column this week about the Congressional Budget Office's ten-year projection report, I wrote:

As always, the CBO's report relies on various optimistic assumptions: that temporary tax provisions are allowed to expire on schedule; that planned spending reductions actually occur; that controversial tariffs remain in place; that interest rates remain where they are now. It also assumes that in 2032, when the Social Security Trust fund dries up, Congress will borrow enough to maintain all benefits at their current level without creating more inflation. Not all these things will happen.

As always, the CBO's report relies on various optimistic assumptions: that temporary tax provisions are allowed to expire on schedule; that planned spending reductions actually occur; that controversial tariffs remain in place; that interest rates remain where they are now. It also assumes that in 2032, when the Social Security Trust fund dries up, Congress will borrow enough to maintain all benefits at their current level without creating more inflation. Not all these things will happen.

This morning, the Supreme Court struck down President Trump's global tariffs,

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