It kind of seems like Iran still controls the Strait of Hormuz.

The “completely open” state of the strait lasted about a day. From Politico:

Iran’s military reimposed strict control over the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, demanding that the U.S. must lift its blockade of Iranian ports before the vital waterway is opened again, a spokesperson for the joint military command said. The move came as Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) gunboats fired on a tanker attempting to transit the strait. “Control over the Strait of Hormuz has returned to its previous state, and this strategic waterway is now under strict management and control of the armed forces,” a spokesperson for Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya military command headquarters said in comments carried by state-controlled Tasnim news.

Iran’s military reimposed strict control over the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, demanding that the U.S. must lift its blockade of Iranian ports before the vital waterway is opened again, a spokesperson for the joint military command said.

The move came as Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) gunboats fired on a tanker attempting to transit the strait.

“Control over the Strait of Hormuz has returned to its previous state, and this strategic waterway is now under strict management and control of the armed forces,” a spokesperson for Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya military command headquarters said in comments carried by state-controlled Tasnim news.

According to Axios, U.S. officials believe that “at least three attacks on commercial ships have occurred so far on Saturday,” while the United Kingdom reports two attacks.

I won’t be commenting on every back-and-forth development over the Strait of Hormuz — there are sure to be many more. The strait may sometimes be open and sometimes be closed. Ships may sometimes be tolled and sometimes not. Tankers may sometimes just fear an attack, and sometimes may actually be shot at. My argument remains: All of these outcomes are, more or less, at Iran’s discretion. And, after exhausting our offensive target list over the past month, the United States has far less control over what Iran decides than we like to believe.

Trump already used the stick against the mullahs. We should worry that all he might have left to offer are carrots.

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