President Trump told Larry Kudlow earlier this month, “in theory, we’ve gotten everything passed that we need,” and he has no interest in a second reconciliation bill, so it is unlikely that the GOP-controlled Congress will get any additional major legislation past the Democratic filibuster in the Senate. Some Republicans are still holding out hope for a second reciliation bill, but there’s no sign that Trump wants one.

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One year into his presidency, Trump has apparently done everything he intends to do through legislation – or at least related to fiscal and economic policy.

We don’t know what’s going to happen in the 2026 midterms, but with 218 Republicans and 214 Democrats, the Democrats winning back control of the House of Representatives appears much more likely than a wider GOP House majority. (The Cook Political Report rates only 18 House seats as toss-ups, and only 36 are rated toss up, lean Republican or lean Democrat.)

The president’s job approval rating is low. In the most recent Washington Post survey, only 32 percent of Americans approve of how he has handled inflation, 65 percent say the president has gone beyond his authority as president, 62 percent say he is using the presidency to enrich himself, and 48 percent say the economy has gotten worse since he took office, while 29 percent say it has gotten better.

You can dismiss that poll, but the CBS News poll found 53 percent of Americans say the country is in worse shape today than a year ago, while 29 percent say it is better now. When asked for words to describe the state of the country, the top answers were “divided” and “declining.”

The Donald Trump of 2025 and 2026 is more erratic, impulsive, tempestuous and self-absorbed than he was during his first term. (He announced on Truth Social that he would no longer capitalize the words “Supreme Court” over their decision on his tariffs.) In Trump’s first term, he didn’t waste as much time on things like renaming the Kennedy Center, building a White House ballroom, or fantasies of annexing Greenland. I’m not sure how many Americans in 2024 voted for Trump because they prioritized revenge prosecutions against Jim Comey, Tish James, or Jerome Powell, or Democratic lawmakers.

You may have noticed a lot of ominous talk about the growth and use of artificial intelligence having far-reaching disruptive effects on the economy. The only reference to AI in last night’s State of the Union address was, “many Americans are also concerned that energy demand from AI data centers could unfairly drive up their electric utility bills. Tonight I’m pleased to announce that I have negotiated the new ratepayer protection pledge. We’re telling the major tech companies that they have the obligation to provide for their own power needs.”

The word “China” was not mentioned in last night’s State of the Union address.

There was no reference to the national debt or deficit in the speech, either; there’s no discernable concern within this administration about this year’s deficit, projected to be about $1.9 trillion, or the cumulative national debt, now $38.7 trillion. Interest payments on our national debt will exceed $1 trillion this year.

The president has always had idiosyncratic interests, but that may become a real problem for Republicans as they head into the election.

Perhaps in the next eight months, the electorate’s assessment of the economy will improve, and the midterms won’t be so bad for Republicans. But that doesn’t feel like a particularly safe bet now, particularly with President Trump hell-bent upon keeping his tariffs in place, or perhaps imposing even higher ones. There are other mitigating factors, such as Republicans having a gargantuan advantage in cash-on-hand for the midterm elections. No doubt, in certain House districts and Senate primaries, Democrats will nominate some freakshow candidates. But Republicans will have their own messy primaries and likely some blown opportunities.

If Democrats win control of the House in 2026, very few if any Trump-aligned economic bills will end up on his desk in the final two years of his presidency. In terms of economic policy changes passed through legislation, the Trump presidency may well already be done.

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