The Morning Jolt, reporting from Riga, Latvia, back in May:

And a Latvian official who deals with national security issues speculated that perhaps a year or so after the Ukraine war “stops being a hot war,” Russia could regenerate its capabilities sufficiently to at least threaten an invasion of one or more of the Baltic states. This Latvian official also observed, “Russians can miscalculate,” and even if NATO’s forces were thoroughly prepared to repel a Russian invasion attempt, the decision-makers in Moscow may not realize it or may not want to believe it. After all, Russia initially believed it would complete its annexation of Ukraine within a matter of months. Deterrence doesn’t just require being prepared to fend off a threat; it requires the other guy to know and believe you’re prepared to fend off his threat. Earlier this month, Latvian Armed Forces Commander Major General Kaspars Pudāns said in an interview with the German state-funded television network Deutsche Welle, “If I were sitting in the Kremlin, I would say that my window of opportunity is 2027-2029, while NATO is not ready. Since after 2030, this window may close, Russia will become stronger, but the same applies to Europe and NATO.”

And a Latvian official who deals with national security issues speculated that perhaps a year or so after the Ukraine war “stops being a hot war,” Russia could regenerate its capabilities sufficiently to at least threaten an invasion of one or more of the Baltic states.

This Latvian official also observed, “Russians can miscalculate,” and even if NATO’s forces were thoroughly prepared to repel a Russian invasion attempt, the decision-makers in Moscow may not realize it or may not want to believe it. After all, Russia initially believed it would complete its annexation of Ukraine within a matter of months. Deterrence doesn’t just require being prepared to fend off a threat; it requires the other guy to know and believe you’re prepared to fend off his threat.

Earlier this month, Latvian Armed Forces Commander Major General Kaspars Pudāns said in an interview with the German state-funded television network Deutsche Welle, “If I were sitting in the Kremlin, I would say that my window of opportunity is 2027-2029, while NATO is not ready. Since after 2030, this window may close, Russia will become stronger, but the same applies to Europe and NATO.”

The Wall Street Journal, Friday morning:

Russian President Vladimir Putin could try to test NATO’s resolve with a limited assault on an allied country in the next few years, according to new U.S. intelligence reports that posit possible scenarios ranging from a cyberattack to a small-scale land incursion. The U.S. had previously assessed that Putin wouldn’t provoke a North Atlantic Treaty Organization country while he is still fighting in Ukraine. But that assessment changed earlier this year, the U.S. officials said, as Putin is increasingly squeezed in Ukraine and under........

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