As many of you know, Texas’s 2026 primary is held next Tuesday, and early voting is already underway. There are a slew of tightly contested races up and down the ballot within both parties, many of which seem likely to head to a later runoff. (Expect a rip-roaring, Texas mesquite–smoked Carnival of Fools on Tuesday previewing it all.)

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But the true headliner is the one race that will likely be decided on the night, however narrowly: soon-to-be former Representative Jasmine Crockett versus Texas State Representative James Talarico, for the privilege of running for Senate in November. A Democratic Senate nomination normally wouldn’t be worth a jar of warm sputum in a state as Republican as Texas, but these are not normal times: Republicans seem suicidally intent on turfing out incumbent Senator John Cornyn in favor of incandescently corrupt state Attorney General Ken Paxton, which puts the seat in serious jeopardy in November — to a credibly moderate Democrat, that is. (As for Paxton, what is there to say? I’ll cite an old Orwell maxim and leave it at that.)

Crockett, needless to say, does not fit that bill. She is a television celebrity, a catchphrase-coining bomb-thrower, beloved by a certain kind of mindless partisan but hugely divisive to all others. “Smart” partisans within the Democratic establishment, including, tellingly, the donor class, have instead thrown their enthusiasm behind James Talarico — whose dweebish sincerity would normally get him steamrolled in Texas but perhaps threads a needle in 2026 — in an effort to give Democrats the best chance of picking up the seat in the general election.

To quote that old Texas gasbag Dan Rather, the race is as tight as a tick right now: Crockett’s indifferent campaigning and terrible fundraising have contrasted with Talarico’s well-funded operation, and what few polls of the primary there are have split 3-to-2 in who they show leading. Early voting among Democrats is at record numbers, and although I’d tip the race narrowly to Crockett (for reasons I will explain Tuesday morning), only a fool would express a confident opinion about the outcome.

But Jasmine Crockett now has something her opponent James Talarico lacks: Kamalamentum. Yes, Kamala Harris, last seen contemplating the idea of running for president in 2028, has decided to make a splashy endorsement: She has recorded a last-second robocall for Crockett to go out to Democratic voters (and, one imagines specifically, black Democratic voters) and push Crockett over the top. Set aside the easy snark about whether an official blessing from Kamala Harris is equivalent to the kiss of death; one way or another, Harris is the most recent Democratic presidential nominee and, by any reckoning, a big and symbolic “get” for Crockett.

The “smart money” in this race is quietly backing Talarico; Harris instead publicly backed Crockett. There is more going here than the simple political analysis of “black Democratic woman endorses black Democratic woman” — though you can be sure the toxic racial politics of the left played a role in Harris’s decision. In fact, I’m less interested in what this means for Crockett’s campaign than for Harris’s future. This is a questionable bet for her to place, but it is a bet; the fact that she’s endorsing at all suggests she’s keeping her future presidential options open — remaining in “the game,” so to speak.

I’ve often joked about how I heartily encourage Kamala Harris to run for president again, simply because a downtrodden and depressed America could use the comedy. Behind that lies a more serious analysis, however: I believe her current numbers in primary polling to be almost entirely illusory, a function of name recognition and recency bias by respondents. (It reminds me of polling in 2001–2002 suggesting Al Gore would be the certain 2004 nominee for Democrats.) She is within her rights to feel differently.

However, we won’t know unless she tries it — and as man of science, I am interested in running this experiment. So we will see what kinds of endorsements Harris offers to other candidates in later primaries. My guess is we’ll be able to divine a lot about her intentions.

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