My latest column is on the SAVE Act fight. I remain skeptical that the bill is worth passing, much less that it is so valuable as to justify changing how the Senate passes laws. That said, when we are talking about state laws aiming to stop voting and election fraud, including voter ID laws, we should recall that fraud really does happen.

Trump’s State of the Union Address: Live Updates

Our Men’s Hockey Team’s Historic Win Was Just Too Much for Sports Writers to Bear

S.F. Homeless Nonprofit CEO Charged with Nine Felonies for Allegedly Misappropriating over $1M in Public Funds

No, it likely no longer happens on the notorious scale of the 1982 Illinois governor’s race, in which 100,000 fraudulent votes were cast by the Chicago Democratic machine, resulting in more than 60 federal convictions. Or when, “in 1984, Brooklyn’s Democratic district attorney, Elizabeth Holtzman, released a state grand-jury report on a successful 14-year conspiracy that cast thousands of fraudulent votes in local, state, and congressional elections.”

But not only do people still get charged and convicted every year for voting and election fraud — I collected some notorious cases in 2022, including a veteran Democratic operative in Philadelphia pleading guilty to federal charges of rigging fraudulent ballots that “made up 22%, 15%, and 17% of the votes” at his precinct — but fraud can tip very close elections. I noted in a lengthy 2014 roundup some elections that didn’t result in judicial overturnings, which I’ll reprint here. Recount mischief wasn’t the only problem in Florida in 2000:

One of the most comprehensive studies of the 2000 presidential election, “Democracy Held Hostage,” was conducted by the Miami Herald — it found that 400 votes were cast illegally in heavily Democratic Broward County when poll workers allowed voters to vote who were not on the precinct voting rolls. And another 452 were cast illegally by felons in Broward. In Volusia County — which supported Gore — 277 voters voted who were not registered, including 73 voters at predominately black Bethune-Cookman University, which voted heavily for Gore. The Herald review of votes in 22 counties (with 2.3 million ballots) found that 1,241 ballots were cast illegally by felons who had not received clemency. Of these voters, 75% were registered Democrats. And the Herald study counted only those who had been sentenced to prison for more than a year.

One of the most comprehensive studies of the 2000 presidential election, “Democracy Held Hostage,” was conducted by the Miami Herald — it found that 400 votes were cast illegally in heavily Democratic Broward County when poll workers allowed voters to vote who were not on the precinct voting rolls. And another 452 were cast illegally by felons in Broward. In Volusia County — which supported Gore — 277 voters voted who were not registered, including 73 voters at predominately black Bethune-Cookman University, which voted heavily for Gore.

The Herald review of votes in 22 counties (with 2.3 million ballots) found that 1,241 ballots were cast illegally by felons who had not received clemency. Of these voters, 75% were registered Democrats. And the Herald study counted only those who had been sentenced to prison for more than a year.

The [2004 Washington governor’s] race was an agony of recounts — there were three counts, and only when Democrat Christine Gregoire pulled ahead of Republican Dino Rossi after a bunch of extra ballots turned up in Democrat-controlled King County (Seattle) did they stop the count. Gregoire won by 129 votes, and subsequent investigation revealed that more convicted felons voted in that race than the margin of victory.

The SAVE Act’s Virtuous Goals Are Not Worth the Cost

Has Contrived Coarseness Jumped the Shark?

Nationalizing Elections Is a Very Bad Idea, as It Was When Democrats Tried It

The 2008 Franken–Coleman [Senate] race in Minnesota, again, saw the Republican Election Day leader lose to the recount-winning Democrat, and by a margin of 312 votes — but “a conservative watchdog group matched criminal records with the voting rolls and discovered that 1,099 felons had illegally cast ballots. State law mandates prosecutions in such cases; 177 have been convicted so far, with 66 more awaiting trial [as of 2012].” As Byron York noted, “that’s a total of 243 people either convicted of voter fraud or awaiting trial in an election that was decided by 312 votes.”

Then there’s the 2010 Connecticut governor’s race:

In the close governor’s race in Connecticut in 2010, a mysterious shortage of ballots in Bridgeport kept the polls open an extra two hours as allegedly blank ballots were photocopied and handed out in the heavily Democratic city. Dannel Malloy defeated Republican Tom Foley by nearly 7,000 votes statewide — but by almost 14,000 votes in Bridgeport.

In the close governor’s race in Connecticut in 2010, a mysterious shortage of ballots in Bridgeport kept the polls open an extra two hours as allegedly blank ballots were photocopied and handed out in the heavily Democratic city. Dannel Malloy defeated Republican Tom Foley by nearly 7,000 votes statewide — but by almost 14,000 votes in Bridgeport.

There are also cases that are more misfeasance than malfeasance, such as the Minnesota House election in 2024 where election officials threw 20 ballots in the trash uncounted in a race decided by 14 votes; the courts avoided invalidating the outcome only because the incumbent Democrat tracked down enough of the voters with missing ballots to say they supported him that the court concluded that the missing votes didn’t affect the outcome.

You may dismiss those as sour grapes because no court ever invalidated the result, and in the 2000 presidential race, Bush won anyway. But examples over the past three decades show that courts do sometimes find situations so egregious — almost always in extremely close elections — that the results need to be thrown out. A not-necessarily-comprehensive list:

In 2023, the mayoral primary in Bridgeport, Conn., was thrown out due to video of stuffing absentee ballots in an outdoor box.

In 2021, an alderman race in Mississippi was overturned, due largely to malfeasance in the handling of absentee ballots.

In 2021, an election for the Eatonville, Fla., Town Council was overturned due to illegal and/or fraudulent votes.

In 2019, a congressional race was overturned in North Carolina due to absentee ballot fraud.

In 2018, a Republican primary election for a seat on the Kaufman County, Texas, Commissioners Court was overturned due to a vote harvester submitted illegal mail-in ballots.

In 2018, a runoff election for mayor of Mission, Texas, was overturned for bribery of voters and tampering with absentee ballots.

In 2018, an election for Kleberg County, Texas, Justice of the Peace was thrown out on the grounds of illegal nonresident voters.

In 2017, the mayor of Brighton, Ala., was removed and a new election ordered due to illegal absentee votes.

In 2017, a judge threw out a three-vote margin of victory in a race for city council in Wetumpka, Ala., due to forged or unverifiable signatures on absentee ballots.

In 2016, the Democratic primary for a seat in the Missouri House was overturned due to improper absentee ballots.

In 2016, the North Carolina Board of Elections ordered new elections for both the mayor of Pembroke and a city council seat in Lumberton on the basis of various irregularities, including fraudulent votes.

In 2015, an election for a city council seat in Perth Amboy, N.J., was thrown out due to more than a dozen fraudulent mail-in ballots.

In 2015, an election for Weslaco, Texas, city commissioner was thrown out due to 30 illegally cast absentee ballots.

In 2015, the Turkey Creek, La., mayoral election was ordered overturned due to buying of in-person votes, some of them multiple votes.

In 2012, a city council election in Vernon, Calif., was thrown out after six ballots were invalidated, some of them for being nonresidents; that was enough to change the outcome, but challengers alleged that as many as a third of the votes cast were illegal.

In 2010, a judge threw out a Democratic primary election for county clerk of Lincoln County, W.V., after throwing out 300 fraudulent ballots.

In 2004, the East Chicago, Ind., Democratic mayoral primary was thrown out due to major absentee ballot fraud and vote-buying.

In 2004, the Alabama Supreme Court overturned the results of the Guntersville, Ala., mayor’s race on the basis of invalid, improperly identified absentee ballots.

In 1998, the mayoral election in Miami, Fla., was thrown out due to a wide pattern of absentee ballot fraud.

In 1997, a sheriff’s election in Dodge County, Ga., was thrown out due to vote-buying, felon voting, dead people voting, and other fraud.

In 1994, the mayoral election in Hialeah, Fla., was thrown out due to forged absentee ballots.

Also in 1994, an election for the Pennsylvania Senate was thrown out due to hundreds of bogus ballots.

These are, I emphasize, not conspiracy theories, but judicial findings. With 15 of them in the past eleven years, they are unlikely to be the last. I’m not even counting criminal convictions that found enough ballot fraud to change the outcomes of past elections. They support the view that absentee ballots are more fraud-prone than in-person voting, but arguably also the view that in-person fraud is harder to catch.

Our election system is, by and large, remarkably honest and effective (other than the habitual tardiness of some jurisdictions in counting votes). Fraud is rare and unlikely to affect outcomes unless elections are extremely close. But the incentives are still there, as they have always been, to scam the system. There’s no good reason not to take basic precautions against that.

© National Review