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Vivian Bercovici: Regime change in Iran is no longer a fantasy

Assassinations of top regime figures, protests, and tips from Iranians move the Islamic regime closer to collapse

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On Tuesday morning, Israelis awoke to the news that the head of the Basij police in Iran had been killed in a targeted overnight air strike.

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Gholamreza Soleimani led the almost one-million strong force that is feared and loathed by Iranians for its violence and savagery in repressing even peaceful protest and dissent.

Vivian Bercovici: Regime change in Iran is no longer a fantasy Back to video

The top tier of Basij police are paid a salary, but most are not. They join and carry out their savage enforcement orders out of what is likely a desire for social status and power. Basij forces are the ones removing wounded protesters from hospitals and executing them in their beds. They shoot wildly and drive motorcycles into crowds.

Earlier this month, thousands of Basij members were sent a mass warning by an unknown actor: “You are under our complete surveillance. We know what crimes you have committed against the Iranian people. We have identified you and all your associates. Surrender or flee. There will be no second warning.”

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This week, Basij men were filmed changing from their uniforms into street clothes on the streets of Tehran, which may suggest they’re fearful.

This could be the beginning of the moment when regime change moves from fantasy to reality. Typically, when an authoritarian regime loses control of its enforcers, the house of cards begins to collapse in upon itself.

Also killed in a precision strike in the same wave of attacks that targeted Soleimani was Ali Larijani, considered to have possibly been the most powerful person in Iran. Before he was killed in the opening attack of the war in late February, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was exceptionally close with Larijani, and had been for many years.

Over several decades, Larijani developed extensive expertise in diplomatic and military matters. He was feared and respected by the many powerful factions controlling Iran, precisely because of his intelligence, political skill and close ties with Khamenei. As well, there had been speculation for some time regarding the overall health of Khamenei and his ability to withstand the rigours of leadership. It was believed that decision making had largely become the preserve of Larijani in recent years.

For Iranian military and security forces, this recent string of assassinations of top leadership figures sends a chilling message. The intelligence that the Israeli and American forces are working with is impressively precise and accurate up-to-the-moment. Senior regime officials — like Soleimani — had taken to meeting in temporary tent encampments. In fact, when he was struck, Soleimani was reportedly at a recently established tent camp in a forested area near Tehran. Basij headquarters and regional offices and infrastructure have been pummeled by Israel and America in the last few weeks.

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Regime officials are vulnerable, anywhere, any time.

What is also clear is that there are Iranian officials — who are among the most trusted decision makers at the highest levels of power — who are providing critical information to the western allies in real time. Trust, one presumes, would be in very short supply among the diminishing ranks of Iranian leadership.

Israel and America have compiled a comprehensive list of regime targets and assets over decades. This is not a fly-by-the-seat-of-one’s-pants military effort. It is the culmination of the painstaking cultivation of information sources in a nation of over 90-million people the fanatical regime has oppressed for 47 years.

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The Wall Street Journal reported this week that the successful targeting of Soleimani was made possible largely due to tips received from ordinary Iranians.

This constant and reliable flow of intelligence is exactly what the U.S. and Israeli forces need in order to weaken the regime chokehold on power and create conditions that will make it possible for the Iranian people to — as President Trump has encouraged — rise up and overthrow the regime.

An oft-cited 2024 survey by the Netherlands-based Group for Analyzing and Measuring Attitudes in Iran (GAMMAN) found that approximately 89 per cent of Iranians supported democracy or some transformation of the political system.

Among urban, educated and younger Iranians, opposition to the regime is strongest, unsurprisingly. And since the GAMMAN survey was completed, regime violence against its people has intensified and become even more brutal. Since peaceful protests began in the Tehran bazaar in late December, demanding economic and broad political reforms, the regime crackdown is believed to have resulted in the deaths of thousands of unarmed civilians.

Young people, often led by university students, have become the courageous force leading this determined popular uprising for regime change. Even in the face of almost certain death, they continue to take to the streets.

But what remains unclear is who will galvanize the people to lead an organized effort to topple the current ruling classes and present a credible alternative. Also of concern is the degree to which this may be achieved without the intervention of “boots on the ground.” To date, America and Israel have waged war from the air, in combat planes. If there is consensus of anything it is that air-power alone will not be sufficient to support the overthrow of the regime.

The U.S. has been supporting Kurdish groups for decades. Several months before the war, the CIA began lending support to thousands of well-armed and trained Kurdish militia forces in the region. Spread over Iran, Iraq, Syria and Turkey are approximately 30-45-million Kurds.

Kurdish warriors — men and women — will likely be involved in any ground operation, and not for the first time. Western collective memory tends to be short, and many leaders seem to have forgotten that it was the Kurds who were most engaged and effective in defeating the barbaric “government” of ISIS.

Western-oriented, liberal and strong, the Kurds are also highly motivated to bring the Iranian regime down. It would not be at all surprising if they led such an operation, and this will likely clarify in the coming days and weeks.

Vivian Bercovici is a former Canadian ambassador to Israel.

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