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Thomas Juneau: The Iranian regime is about to become nastier than it has ever been

Ottawa should tackle much more seriously the presence of Islamic Republic officials in Canada

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The final outcome of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran remains highly uncertain. The Islamic Republic may collapse, especially if the war goes on for weeks, as President Donald Trump has hinted. Yet there is also a scenario whereby the regime survives, especially if President Trump — as he has also indicated might be his objective — decides to stop the war, declare victory, and relaunch negotiations with Tehran.

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Under this second scenario, the combination of internal regime vulnerability, acute geopolitical pressure, and heightened diaspora mobilization points to a tragic but clear assessment: in 2026, the Islamic Republic will be weaker, but nastier. As a result, it will intensify its already forceful efforts to target, intimidate, and threaten dissidents and activists abroad.

Thomas Juneau: The Iranian regime is about to become nastier than it has ever been Back to video

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