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Sylvain Charlebois: How food inflation hijacked Valentine’s Day

This year, couples will be looking for ways to avoid sky high prices in restaurants

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Food-related rituals around Valentine’s Day are quietly evolving. After Mother’s Day, Valentine’s Day has long carried the dubious distinction of being the worst day of the year to dine out: inflated price-fixed menus, rushed service, and little value for money. This year, however, the calendar changes the equation. With Valentine’s Day falling on a Saturday, celebrations are likely to stretch from Thursday through Sunday. For restaurant operators, that creates an opportunity to turn a single, stressful evening into a multi-day event — an important reprieve for a sector that continues to struggle, even without the temporary boost of last year’s GST holiday.

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More broadly, the Valentine’s Day restaurant experience itself is changing — significantly.

Sylvain Charlebois: How food inflation hijacked Valentine’s Day Back to video

Food spending patterns this year tell a clear story about shifting consumer behaviour. In the United States, which often foreshadows trends in Canada, total Valentine’s spending is expected to reach a record US$29.1 billion, with food-related categories still dominating: US$6.3 billion on dining out, US$3.1 billion on flowers, and 56 per cent of consumers planning to buy candy. In Canada, 51 per cent of consumers plan to go out for a special meal — up sharply from 44 per cent last year — largely because Valentine’s Day lands on a Saturday. But restaurant data suggest the more interesting change is not how much people are spending, but how they are choosing to dine.

According to OpenTable, group dining bookings (six or more) are up 28 per cent year over year, early-evening and happy-hour dining has increased by 30 per cent, and special-occasion dining on Valentine’s Day has jumped 46 per cent. These patterns point to a move toward shared plates, earlier seatings, and lower-pressure experiences. Romance has not disappeared; it has simply been re-engineered around food experiences that feel more social, flexible, and better value than the traditional white-tablecloth splurge.

Alcohol trends are shifting as well. This Valentine’s Day, restaurants are seeing rising demand for mocktails and low-alcohol options, particularly among younger diners. In Canada and the United States, mocktail mentions on restaurant menus are up nearly 30 per cent year over year, reflecting a broader shift toward moderation and inclusivity. Beverage spending remains significant — U.S. data still point to US$6.3 billion in spending on eating and drinking out — but many consumers are alternating between alcoholic and non-alcoholic options rather than opting out entirely.

Another notable shift is the growing number of consumers choosing to celebrate Valentine’s Day at home, especially if the weather is not cooperating. And with the Winter Canada is having, we are expecting more to celebrate in the comfort of their homes.

According to DoorDash’s Valentine’s Day 2025 data, grocery delivery orders spiked sharply around February 14, which was on a Friday, running about 60 per cent higher than a typical day. Premium ingredients lead the surge: lobster orders rise by more than 500 per cent, scallops by 150 per cent, and steak by 90 per cent. Wine and celebratory beverages also jump, with rosé Champagne up 190 per cent and Prosecco up 120 per cent. These trends suggest that many households are turning cooking into a shared, indulgent experience — replicating restaurant-quality meals at home while avoiding high menu prices, tips, parking costs, and expensive wine lists. We are expecting similar trends this year.

Chocolate, of course, remains a sore point. Valentine’s Day still drives a seasonal spike in chocolate sales, but price relief is unlikely this year. Cocoa futures exceeded US$9,000 per tonne last year, forcing manufacturers to reprice aggressively. The result is widespread sticker shock in grocery stores and pharmacies, with chocolate prices running 20 per cent to 40 per cent higher than two years ago, depending on the product. There is, however, cautious optimism ahead: cocoa futures have fallen by roughly 69 per cent from last year’s peak, and production has rebounded in both Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. If those trends hold, next Valentine’s Day may finally bring some welcome price stability — or even modest relief — for chocolate lovers.

Sylvain Charlebois is director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University, co-host of The Food Professor Podcast and visiting scholar at McGill University.

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