The world has plenty of oil on hand. There are easier places than Venezuela to get more

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When I was still a kid in the 1970s, the OPEC oil cartel launched an embargo that sent prices through the roof, hitting western economies like a sledgehammer.

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When prices spiked, long line-ups formed at pumps, gas stations ran dry, speed limits were slashed. Received wisdom was that long family road trips were dead, drivers would need smaller, more efficient vehicles, strict conservation was the new normal.

My father didn’t believe the end was nigh, spent a few days in Florida where real estate had crashed, and bought a townhouse on the beach at fire sale prices. It turned out to be a smart move: eventually the market adjusted, the lineups disappeared, road trips continued and people returned to gas-guzzlers. America’s biggest-selling vehicle for more than 40 years has been Ford’s F-Series pickup truck.

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We no longer own the townhouse, but for 20 years it offered a winter respite. For me, it was a lesson that world crises don’t always play out as anticipated. Short-term predictions are easy: shock produces uncertainty, which produces nervousness, which often puts pressure on governments to respond posthaste. Longer-term is tougher, since the very definition of uncertainty is that solutions aren’t clear.

The United States’ surprise foray in........

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