On 26 December 2025, Israel became the first country to formally recognise Somaliland. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is presenting the decision as a diplomatic breakthrough, an extension of the Abraham Accords logic into the Horn of Africa.

It is also being marketed as a strategic move, a foothold near Yemen, a vantage point over the Bab el-Mandeb, and a way to demonstrate that the pro-Palestinian camp is too fragmented to impose real costs on Israel. At the same time, the move has revived the most toxic speculation of all: that Somaliland might be pressured to accept Palestinians forcibly displaced from Gaza. Even if that scenario never materialises, the association alone is cause for serious trepidation.

Somaliland was a British protectorate that briefly gained independence in 1960 before voluntarily uniting with Italian administered Somalia to form the Somali Republic. After the collapse of the Somali state and the brutal repression carried out by the Siad Barre regime, Somaliland declared independence in 1991. Since then, it has functioned as a de facto state with its own government, currency and security forces.

Somalia, by contrast, has remained internationally recognised as a single sovereign state. No country had formally recognised Somaliland until Netanyahu’s move, and under international law and African Union norms, it is still considered an integral part of Somalia’s territory. This recognition is a familiar Netanyahu manoeuvre.

Create a headline, declare momentum, provoke outrage, and then present backlash as proof of resolve. Yet recognition of Somaliland is not an isolated foreign policy gesture. It is a statement about borders, sovereignty and what Israel believes it can get away with even as the war in Gaza continues to corrode international norms.

That is precisely why the strategy is likely to backfire. Not because Somaliland lacks a case for recognition—it has built functioning institutions and pursued international legitimacy for decades—but because Israel’s motives will be interpreted through the prism of Gaza, displacement and expansion. In that context, the symbolism is explosive and the security logic deeply flawed.

For years, Israel has lobbied for a strict doctrine of........

© National Herald