On Sunday, the Coalition Avenir Québec will have a new leader — and Quebec a new premier.

It’s one of those peculiar features of our parliamentary system: When the governing party changes leaders, that person automatically becomes the province’s new captain.

Even though very few voters have had a direct say — apart from a few thousand CAQ members, which represent less than one per cent of Quebec’s population.

Quite a rare event in Quebec politics. The last time such a situation occurred was when Lucien Bouchard quit politics — a quarter-century ago.

He was replaced by Bernard Landry, whose government didn’t survive the following election, losing power to Jean Charest’s Liberals in 2003.

A similar outcome could await either Christine Fréchette or Bernard Drainville in the coming election. As they inherit a party in shambles, worn down after nearly eight years in power and trailing far behind their opponents in voting intentions, their tenure might be short-lived — unless some miracle happens for the CAQ.

But for a party that champions secularism, praying for a miracle is perhaps a bit of a stretch.

CAQ members are lucid — they understand their days in government are numbered. As the leadership vote began this week, the ballot question has never really been which candidate can win the coming election, but rather who can save the CAQ from total annihilation.

Because when the whole house is burning, you don’t try to put out the fire — you just salvage as much furniture as you can before it’s too late.

From that perspective, Fréchette appears to have the advantage. Looking at opinion polls, party members see that out of the two candidates, she’s the one who can move the needle for the CAQ, bringing it in third place behind the Parti Québécois and Liberals — enough to keep the so-called “third way” alive with at least a few seats in the National Assembly.

At this stage, that may be the most realistic goal.

That’s one of the main reasons why, since François Legault announced his intention to resign, Fréchette has been far ahead of Drainville, both in internal polling and in terms of endorsements from CAQ ministers and MNAs.

Not necessarily because they’re enthusiastic about her vision or leadership style — but most probably because she seems to be the most likely to prevent their party from completely collapsing.

In short: Many are voting with their head, much less with their heart. Pragmatically. Strategically.

But as the race appeared like an uphill battle from the outset for Drainville, the polarizing minister pulled out a major wild card on Monday when he announced he’d won the endorsement of one of the party’s most influential tenors: Simon Jolin-Barrette.

The potential impact of that last-minute endorsement shouldn’t be underestimated. Within CAQ circles, SJB is among the most respected and admired figures. In fact, had he decided to run to succeed Legault, he’d probably be the leadership front-runner today.

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Without a doubt, Jolin-Barrette’s backing is by far the most important Drainville has received since he officially launched his campaign. The question now is whether it came too late.

Had he joined Drainville’s team at the beginning of the race, Jolin-Barrette could have built momentum and convinced some of his most nationalist colleagues to follow him — think of Jean-François Roberge, for instance, who chose to support Fréchette despite being ideologically much closer to Drainville.

SJB could have sold thousands of membership cards, guaranteeing Drainville much needed votes.

That could have been a real game changer. Instead, Jolin-Barrette remained on the sidelines far too long.

If Drainville defies the odds and surprises with an unexpected victory on Sunday, he will sure owe it in large part to SJB. But if he doesn’t, the justice minister might regret not taking a stance much earlier in this race.

© Montreal Gazette