The Future of Iran’s Relations with its Regional Allies
The antecedents of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s regional network of allies can be traced to the 1979 Islamic Revolution and the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s. The revolution provided the ideological impetus for supporting groups opposed to Israel and Western influence in the region. The war encouraged Tehran to adopt a strategy aimed at preventing future conflicts from reaching Iranian territory by confronting adversaries beyond its borders through allied groups, a strategy referred to as ‘forward defence.’ In the subsequent years and decades, Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and militias in Iraq and Syria, all of which had originated under distinct national circumstances, emerged as Iran’s key regional partners. Each received varying degrees of Iranian support while preserving different levels of autonomy, with Hezbollah regarded as Iran’s closest ally and the Houthis the most autonomous.
The strategy provided Tehran with strategic depth and enhanced its regional influence. By 2024, however, its core assumption had begun to unravel. In the aftermath of Hamas’ Operation Al-Aqsa Flood in October 2023, initiated in response to decades of Israeli occupation and violence against Palestinians, Israel not only unleashed a genocidal campaign in Gaza but also increased its operations against Iranian targets in Syria. The turning point came in April 2024 when Iran’s consular annexe in Damascus was targeted in an attack widely attributed to Israel. Following Tel Aviv’s escalation against an official Iranian state facility, Tehran responded by launching direct strikes on Israeli territory. The episode effectively lowered the threshold for conflict between the two states, followed by a series of subsequent escalations in October 2024, June 2025, and February 2026.
However, although the strategy’s core assumption no longer held, the 2026 United States-Israeli war against Iran demonstrated that Tehran still considered its regional partners as strategically significant assets.
However, although the strategy’s core assumption no longer held, the 2026 United States-Israeli war against Iran demonstrated that Tehran still considered its regional partners as strategically significant assets.
These included Hezbollah,........
