If Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had died in his bed, from illness or old age, his death could have been more dangerous for the Iranian system than many people think. A natural death would have opened a sensitive moment inside the regime: Who replaces him? Can the elites agree? Will the succession process split the leadership? And will the opposition seize the moment and push the street toward larger protests?

This scenario “an internal crisis after a natural death” was closer to what Iran’s opponents wanted. But here is the irony: what Trump and Netanyahu did by killing the Supreme Leader did not weaken the system the way they expected. It saved it from its hardest internal test. 

A natural death could have triggered a succession crisis and maybe street protests

A natural death could have triggered a succession crisis and maybe street protests

If Khamenei had died naturally, the system would have faced a tense transition. In those moments, cracks often appear: competition between institutions, rival factions inside the regime, and disagreement over the next leader.

If the leadership failed to agree quickly, or if divisions became visible, the opposition would have had a rare opportunity. It could argue that the regime is unstable and encourage the street to move. In short, a natural death could have produced a real political crisis, and that........

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